Today, I wanted to look at how run defenses, namely the Pittsburgh Steelers, have fared through Week 8. I’ll look at success rates by down, game halves, weekly views, and some other aspects as well. Let’s jump right in.
First, let’s look at early down-success rates leaguewide (with scrambles, kneels, and aborted/penalty plays excluded):
- First Down Rushing Success = A rush that gains less than 40% of the needed yardage.
- Second Down Rushing Success = A rush that gains less than 50% of the needed yardage.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been one of the NFL’s best units at stopping the run on first down, a 60.0-percent success rate that ranks third-best through eight games. That is quite impressive, stifling the opposition overall and making for tougher situations on following down and distances. Nothing new, thankfully, as the Steelers also ranked third in a similar study through Week 16 of 2023.
The flipside is that the Steelers have been leakier on second downs this season. Their below-the-mean 43.3-percent success rate is noticeably lower and ranks 18th. This has soured the encouraging first-down results and provided more advantageous late-down opportunities for the opposition. Interestingly, the Steelers also struggled in 2023, ranking 20th through the majority of last season.
Let’s see how they’ve fared on late downs, where third and fourth downs that do not pick up a first down are considered successful:
As expected, Pittsburgh’s defense often steps up in situational football, rising to the occasion on late downs with a 54.4-percent success rate, seventh-best in the NFL. This is the biggest difference from 2023 so far, when the Steelers ranked 20th on late downs in my last study I’ve been referencing.
That is great news and hopefully continues the rest of 2024. This will be critical as Pittsburgh’s defense is set to face the top three offenses in rushing yards through Week 9 (pre-Monday Night Football): Baltimore twice (Weeks 11 and 16), Washington (Sunday) and Philadelphia (Week 15).
Here are the total success rates now that we’ve gained context by down:
Overall, things are sitting pretty compared to the rest of the NFL for the Steelers’ run defense. Their 53.5-percent total success rate in 2024 ranks sixth, compared to 10th the last time I looked at the numbers in 2023. This will surely be needed for the second half of the season to go as swimmingly as Pittsburgh desires, and here’s to hoping for just that.
Next, let’s see how defenses have performed by game halves (second half includes overtime):
While there have been several slow-starting elements of this Steelers team, we can see that run defense hasn’t been one of them. Comfortably above average in both halves, with a 52.9-percent first-half success rate and 54.1 percent in the second half, each ranking 10th. Seeing their better number late in games is unsurprising, again tightening up in situational football.
Now, let’s look at the weekly numbers for added context:
Overall, we see that Pittsburgh has largely been above the line more often than not, which makes sense from the previous views.
The season opener was by far the Steelers’ worst mark of 2024, with a 38.1-percent success rate against Atlanta that ranked 25th. The Falcons had 89 rushing yards on the day, 69 from RB Bijan Robinson (3.8 YPA) with RB Tyler Allgeier adding 21 on just three carries (7.0 YPA). The Steelers bent but didn’t break in this regard, not impacting the scoreboard in their 18-10 win.
Then we saw a steady positive trend the next two weeks. Pittsburgh’s 52.9-percent success rate ranked 12th in Week 2 (13-6 win), limiting Denver RBs to just 39 yards (2.6 YPA). The Steelers particularly stifled lead back Javonte Williams on 11 carries (1.5 YPA). RB Tyler Badie did have a 16-yard chunk run though. QB Bo Nix had a team-leading 25 rushing yards.
While the main goal of the article was non-scramble runs, this made me curious to take a quick look at how Pittsburgh’s defense has fared against scrambles in 2024:
The Steelers impressively have the NFL’s best 60.0-percent success rate against scrambles through Week 8. Nix having the most yards against them to date. Some QBs with that ability too: Nix (25 yards), Chargers’ Justin Herbert (0 yards though he played on a sprained ankle before leaving the game after aggravating the injury), Colts’ Anthony Richardson (24 yards before he left the game with an injury), Cowboys’ Dak Prescott (3 yards), and Giants’ Daniel Jones (1 yard).
The upcoming schedule has tougher tests, though, with three top-five QBs in rushing yards: Ravens’ Lamar Jackson, Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, and Eagles’ Jalen Hurts. That’s concerning, but a caveat is that Nix, Richardson, and Jones are all top 10 too and Pittsburgh limited them. Remaining strong against scrambles is a huge key moving forward.
Back to the weekly non-scramble success rates. In Week 3 against the Chargers (20-10 win), Pittsburgh posted its best success rate of 2024 (68.4 percent). This was fourth-best of the week, and 15th leaguewide in the span (over 250 games). That impressive performance limited the Chargers to only 61 rushing yards, with a team-leading 44 yards from RB J.K. Dobbins (2.9 YPA).
Then a steady down trend on during Pittsburgh’s two-game losing streak. Week 4 against the Colts was still above the line, with a nice 60.0-percent success rate. While that seems encouraging, that number doesn’t tell the full story. The Steelers gave up 133 rushing yards, namely 88 against RB Jonathan Taylor (4.2 YPA) and a touchdown. Clearly a factor in the 27-24 loss.
Pittsburgh followed that with only its second below-the-line (50 percent) success rate. That number came in at 48.3 in Week 5 against the Cowboys (20-17 loss), the Steelers allowing 99 rushing yards.
During Pittsburgh’s current three-game winning streak, the first two games featured nice success rates in run defense: 57.9 percent against the Raiders in a 32-13 Week 6 victory. The Steelers allowed just 57 rushing yards, limiting primary back Alexander Mattison to 33 (2.4 YPA). RB Ameer Abdullah did have 24 yards on four carries (6.0 YPA) though, but the run defense was largely strong in a dominant win.
Week 7 against the Jets was a similar 57.1 success rate despite them getting up early on the scoreboard. Just 54 total rush yards allowed with talented lead back Breece Hall’s 38 yards (3.2 YPA) leading the Jets. The bad news was that he had a 13-yard rushing TD. RB Isaiah Davis had a 12-yard run, but that came on the last play of the game with the 37-15 Steelers victory well in hand.
The Steelers’ Week 8 26-18 win against the Giants was below the line, for just the third time in 2024. That 47.8-percent success rate in run defense ranked tied for 15th of the week, obviously worse than the majority of the season.
I expected that rate to be even worse considering Pittsburgh allowed the most team rushing yards (157) on the season to a team that had the least rushing yards heading into the game. RB Tyrone Tracy dominated with 145 yards (7.3 YPA) and a TD.
A discouraging outlier performance by the Steelers’ run defense against a fifth-round rookie back who’s not exactly a household name (respectfully). Pittsburgh allowed a fourth-quarter 45-yard TD run to Tracy, letting the Giants inch closer in what had been a nice 23-9 lead.
That double-explosive run got me curious to see how the Steelers have fared in allowing explosive runs with scrambles included:
The Steelers have only allowed three explosive runs in 2024, tied for fourth fewest. Two came in the Week 4 loss to the Colts with Taylor and QB Joe Flacco each having a 21 yarder. The Tracy 45 yarder was the only other. The recency of that is of course painful, but Pittsburgh limiting explosive runs better than most teams through eight games is hopefully the continued storyline post-bye.
What about chunk runs of 10-plus yards?
Not bad overall, the Steelers tying for ninth in the NFL with 22 runs of 10 or more yards allowed. Pittsburgh did allow four last game, its second most of 2024 to the five allowed in the Week 4 poor run defense outing against Indianapolis.
Some things have waned as of late. But the deep dive into the Pittsburgh Steelers’ run defense revealed a unit that is top 10 in virtually every aspect I dove into this season. The only exception was second-down success rate (18th). Hopefully that improves and that the Steelers’ run defense remains a strength against a tough remaining schedule that includes several strong rushing teams.
