In the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 20-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 5, one major issue was the defense allowing third down conversions. Dallas converted 9 of 15 third downs for a 60 percent rate. For context, the NFL average to date is 37.9, so it was an extremely poor night for Pittsburgh’s defense, which is now allowing 38.7 percent on the season.
Today, I wanted to examine this further, diving deep into the stats to see what I could glean. Game halves appeared to be steady on the surface, but looking at Week 5 compared to the other four games told a different story.
First, here is a visual of third down conversions allowed in all five games by half:
Here, we see Pittsburgh has been better in first halves, with a 39.3 HOTD rate that ranks 18th, landing slightly above the mean. Second halves drop below the line, to 38.2 percent, ranking 21st. Neither are acceptable for the high standard of the unit, the fuel of the team’s success, or lack thereof.
I also wanted to see how last game effected the season average, so here are Weeks 1 through 4:
As we can see, things were above average prior to the loss last week. A 40.9 conversion rate in the first half was the lesser result, ranking slightly above average at 15th. That could surely stand to improve, compared to a great 24.0 second half third down conversion rate that tied for eighth-best.
So, the Steelers defense was tightening up in second halves during the first four games of 2024, which is of course a great quality in hopes of victory.
Then last week happened, falling off a cliff in the second half. Here is a table of the data I dove into for context, coloring each conversion rate individually to see how Pittsburgh stacked up:
Here, we get painful context to the poor 60 percent total conversion rate Pittsburgh allowed in Week 5. The Steelers were abysmal in the second half, allowing an excruciatingly high 77.8 number, which was second-worst in the NFL in Week 5.
Coloring each individual number also shows that while Weeks 1 through 4 were much better, Pittsburgh has been middling compared to other results across the board. For example, the Cleveland Browns were stifling during Weeks 1 through 4 in the second half, allowing just a 9.5 third downs to be converted rate. Wow.
The stark difference in the Steelers’ second half conversion rate allowed in Week 5, going from 24.0 (T-eighth) to 77.8 (T-second worst) was inexcusable to say the least, allowing Dallas to march down the field with ease. It wasn’t a low sample either, allowing 7 of 9 conversions in the second half, which each tied for the highest totals of the week. Ouch.
Considering what has occurred in 2024, this seems like an outlier performance, optimistically. One thing’s for sure: It must improve for the Steelers to get back in the winner’s circle. Here’s to hoping that’s the case against the Raiders on Sunday, and moving forward.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
