While the hockey world shares a consensus belief that the Edmonton Oilers won the Matthew Savoie for Ryan McLeod and Tyler Tullio trade, the deal’s repercussions should not go understated. By trading McLeod, the Oilers lost one of their best faceoff takers, penalty killers, defensive forwards, and young, speedy talent. McLeod played an underrated role in the team’s success last season and his hole must be replaced.
Why Was McLeod so Effective?
The difference between the 2023-24 Oilers compared to prior seasons was not only the impact of superstars Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard but also the team’s depth. Leading the bottom six for the entirety of the 2023-24 season and playoffs, McLeod finished the season averaging just over 14 minutes a night while scoring 12 goals and 30 points across 81 regular season games. While his point production was typical, his defensive presence has flown under the radar.
McLeod dominated the neutral zone as a speedy forward who rarely made mistakes. He is very well disciplined, taking just 10 penalty minutes while drawing 20 penalty minutes last season. As well, he had just 66 takeaways, the third most on the team, compared to 48 giveaways. Among lineup regulars, he finished with the eighth-highest expected goals percentage (xG%) at 57.6, according to MoneyPuck. However, he was one of the best skaters on the team at even strength with 57.5 xG% and one of the better penalty-killers. At 24 years old, he was one of the team’s best two-way forwards and he will be missed.
Replace McLeod Through Trade
The first path the Oilers could pursue to replace McLeod is through a trade. This may be the most logical since free-agent targets are depleted and the team does not have the cap space to bring in one of the few comparable free agents left. While the team has enough former centers on the roster to replace McLeod, bringing in a natural center is likely the best decision. One trade target who makes a lot of sense is Philadelphia Flyers center, Morgan Frost.
Frost is just 25 years old and had 13 goals and 41 points in 71 games last season. He had 61.4 xG% last season, even better than McLeod, and is making just $2.1 million this season before becoming a restricted free agent. It is hard to gauge what the Flyers’ asking price would be, but something along the lines of a second or third-round pick and a young player, such as Raphael Lavoie, Matvei Petrov, or Brady Stonehouse, could get a deal done.
Related: Edmonton Oilers Will Miss Warren Foegele and Ryan McLeod
Other trade targets consist of Ryan Donato of the Chicago Blackhawks, Jake Evans of the Montreal Canadiens, Nick Bjugstad of the Utah Hockey Club, and Jack Drury of the Carolina Hurricanes. At this point in the offseason, many teams have settled their rosters and are no longer looking to make trades, potentially forcing the Oilers to fill this void in free agency.
Replace McLeod Through Free Agency
There are not many free agents left, and the Oilers will need to clear substantial cap space to bring someone in, but it is possible. With both Evander Kane and Cody Ceci potential trade candidates, the Oilers could have the cap space to land a top remaining free agent.
The first free agent target is Tyler Johnson. The 5-foot-8 forward can play center or the wing. He has a career 49.6% faceoff win rate, just above McLeod’s 49%. Similar to McLeod, Johnson is speedy and had impressive offensive totals last season. The two-time Stanley Cup winner scored 17 goals and 31 points in 67 games on a weak Blackhawks team. He also had a 51 xG%, the second highest behind only Connor Bedard. Since Johnson will be 34 years old at the start of the season, he should not be expensive, likely landing a one-year deal below $1.5 million, proving to be a great candidate to replace McLeod.
Although not a center, Nick Cousins could be a replacement. A member of the Florida Panthers last season, Cousins scored just seven goals and 15 points in 69 games. However, he provided impressive defense, finishing the regular season with eight more giveaways than takeaways. He would likely be willing to sign a cheap contract, potentially under $1 million, proving to be a low-risk, medium-reward target for the Oilers.
The Oilers should be cautious in pursuing Jakub Vrana, but he could be a great fit. The 28-year-old is a Stanley Cup champion and a two-time 20-goal scorer. Despite playing only 72 NHL games over the past three seasons, he still possesses the skill to compete in the NHL. He could be signed for the league minimum due to his inability to remain in the NHL, but he would be a low-risk, high-reward move for the Oilers, offering upside from a position the team would not otherwise get.
Replace McLeod Internally
The third and most likely option to replace McLeod is to look internally. Assuming Dylan Holloway returns and no other significant roster alterations are made, the Oilers will not necessarily need to bring in a replacement for McLeod– at least for now. Adam Henrique spent the majority of his career as a center and he could transition back to the role this season. As well, Holloway has experience at center, and moving him down the middle could help kickstart his offensive production.
The Oilers also do not need to make a move right now. The roster is improved from last season and under head coach Kris Knoblauch, the team was dominant. If there is a need to improve the forward core, the team has the assets to make a midseason trade, whether it be at or before the 2025 Trade Deadline. As well, Savoie could be a candidate to get a midseason call-up if he plays a strong enough two-way game to stay in the NHL.
The Oilers’ 2024-25 season opener is still nearly three months away, providing ample time for another move if the team decides it’s necessary. However, it’s important to note that making another move is not a requirement. Interim general manager Jeff Jackson has performed impressively during his short tenure, instilling confidence in fans that any decision he makes will be in the team’s best interest.
