One thing is certain: if the Pittsburgh Steelers win (or tie) against the Philadelphia Eagles next week, they will clinch a spot in the 2024 NFL playoffs.
At 10-3, the Steelers just need to make it impossible for the Miami Dolphins or Indianapolis Colts to catch up in the standings. They are both entering Week 15 with a 6-7 record. With a Pittsburgh win or a tie, it would be impossible for the Steelers to get to seven losses and thus they would clinch.
By that same measure, the Steelers can get in if the Colts and Dolphins both lose or tie their games regardless of what happens with the Steelers. The Colts are playing the Denver Broncos while the Dolphins are playing the Houston Texans.
Here are the scenarios for the Steelers to clinch their spot in the playoffs:
- Steelers Win or Tie
- Colts Lose or Tie AND Dolphins Lose or Tie
Clinching with a win won’t be easy. The Eagles are riding a nine-game win streak, making them one of the hottest teams in the league. However, the Steelers have proven resilient, boasting a 4-0 record against teams with winning records this season. The challenge is heightened by the fact that the Steelers haven’t won in Philadelphia since 1965, a drought that predates even the Chuck Noll era.
If they clinch in Week 15, it will be the earliest they have clinched since 2020, when they secured their spot in Week 14. It would be the 12th time in Mike Tomlin’s 18-year tenure as the head coach that they qualified for the playoffs.
The last time the Steelers clinched a playoff spot in Week 15 was back in the 2010 season, when the Steelers ended up losing to the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl.
Defeating the Eagles would give the Steelers a very strong chance of securing the AFC North, though they wouldn’t be able to clinch the division until the following week against the Baltimore Ravens.
Their chances at securing the AFC’s 1-seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs would also be kept alive. They would need to win out, have the Chiefs lose at least one game that isn’t against the Steelers, and hope favorable strength-of-victory calculations break their way in a tiebreaker with the Buffalo Bills. The odds are long at this point, but not out of the question.
A loss to the Eagles would make it extremely difficult for the Steelers to get the first-round bye, though their chances at qualifying for the playoffs and winning the division would still be quite high. Prior to the Steelers’ Week 14 win over the Cleveland Browns, they had a 98.9-percent chance at making the playoffs and a 70.3-percent chance at winning the division.
It’s less of a question of if the Steelers will qualify, and more of a question of when at this point.
