The NFC South remains to be up for grabs late within the season for the third straight yr, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a legit shot to win a fourth straight title.
The Buccaneers have taken benefit of a weak division the previous two years (9-8 winner in 2023, 8-9 winner in 2022). Although Tampa Bay has gained 4 straight titles, the Atlanta Falcons are lurking one recreation again. On Tuesday, Atlanta made a giant transfer by benching quarterback Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr. The New Orleans Saints have a slim probability of profitable the division — even with a shedding report — and the Carolina Panthers can nonetheless play spoiler with two division rivals on their closing schedule.
Here is a take a look at how the division race can play out within the ultimate weeks of the 2024 season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
Likelihood to win division: 79.4%
Likelihood to make the playoffs: 81.6%
Closing video games: at Dallas Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints
Remaining schedule of power rank: 27
Path to the playoffs: Since their Week 14 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bucs have been in sole possession of first place within the division and management their future. They should hold profitable to take care of a one-game lead over the Falcons due to Atlanta’s head-to-head tiebreaker. Their Week 15 recreation in opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers was their hardest remaining opponent, and so they smoked them 40-17 for his or her fourth straight victory.
Greatest hurdles: Consistency has eluded them on protection, however they’ve discovered a profitable system regardless of mounting accidents. Although none of their remaining three opponents have profitable information, the Panthers did take them to time beyond regulation in Week 13. They’ve additionally had points with turnovers. Tampa Bay’s 20 misplaced turnovers are seventh most within the league. — Jenna Laine
Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
Likelihood to win division: 20.7%
Likelihood to make the playoffs: 29.0%
Closing video games: vs. New York Giants, at Washington Commanders, vs. Panthers
Remaining schedule of power rank: Tied for 31
Path to the playoffs: The Falcons are a recreation behind the Bucs however swept the season sequence. So, if these two groups have the identical report atop the NFC South, Atlanta would win the division by way of tiebreaker so long as the Falcons aren’t tied with the Saints. The Falcons have to go 3-0 or 2-1 the remainder of the way in which and hope the Bucs lose a few times. Atlanta places itself in a greater place to do that by transferring on from a struggling Cousins to Penix. A wild-card spot is feasible, however 4 non-division-leading groups have higher information.
Greatest hurdles: Successful their two dwelling video games remaining in opposition to the Giants and Panthers, who’ve a mixed 5 wins, is an absolute should. The street recreation in opposition to the Commanders (9-5) — who’re additionally preventing for a wild-card spot — is a little more precarious, however not fully inconceivable. Successful out and going 10-7 can be a profitable season for the Falcons. — Marc Raimondi
New Orleans Saints (5-9)
Likelihood to win division: 0%
Likelihood to make the playoffs: 0%
Closing video games: at Inexperienced Bay Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers
Remaining schedule of power rank: 12
Path to the playoffs: The Saints actually wanted the Raiders to drag off an upset in opposition to the Falcons as a result of now they would wish each the Falcons and Buccaneers to lose and for them to win out to win the NFC South — their solely path to the playoffs at this level. That is fairly unlikely contemplating how effectively the Buccaneers are enjoying. Even when it is shut within the final week, the Saints’ loss to the Panthers in all probability comes again to hang-out them.
Greatest hurdles: The Saints do not management their future. However even when that wasn’t an element, New Orleans goes to be at a big drawback. The crew’s subsequent recreation is within the parts at Inexperienced Bay, with out beginning quarterback Derek Carr and doubtlessly with out beginning working Alvin Kamara, who has a groin damage. Although rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler performed effectively for a half final week, that is nonetheless a tricky activity for a younger backup. — Katherine Terrell
Carolina Panthers (3-11)
Likelihood to win division: 0%
Likelihood to make the playoffs: 0%
Closing video games: vs. Arizona Cardinals, at Buccaneers, at Falcons
Remaining schedule of power rank: 13
How they will play spoiler in opposition to different NFC South groups: By doing what they did lately in losses to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, Bucs and Philadelphia Eagles — play effectively sufficient to win however recover from the hump for the victory. There isn’t any plan to tank for a shot on the No. 1 draft choose. It is all about establishing a profitable tradition for 2025. The Bucs received a style of that in Week 13 when an time beyond regulation fumble was the distinction within the Bucs’ win. In addition they received a style of how harmful Bryce Younger (298 yards, two whole touchdowns) might be.
What’s left to perform: Solidify whether or not Younger might be the franchise quarterback, if he hasn’t carried out that already, so the entrance workplace can deal with upgrading the protection in the course of the offseason. The protection’s incapability to cease the run has outlined the crew’s seventh straight shedding season. Video games in opposition to Tampa Bay and Atlanta are good examples. The Bucs had 238 yards dashing of their time beyond regulation win in Charlotte, and the Falcons had a season-high 198 yards in Week 6. — David Newton
