ESPN BET has posted win totals for the upcoming pro football season.
There are eight teams with an over/under of at least 10.5, which would be the most teams with a win total greater than 10 in a season since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002.
Seven of those eight teams had at least 11 wins last season, with the lone exception being Cincinnati (finished 9-8).
On the flip side, Carolina and New England have the lowest win total on the board at 4.5.
Denver is right behind them at 5.5, despite winning eight games last season. The only other team with that large a decrease from its 2023 actual win total is Cleveland (11 wins in 2023, 8.5 win total in 2024).
Here is each team’s projected win total and some notes from our friends at ESPN Stats and Information (some data from SportsOddsHistory.com).
San Francisco 49ers (11.5 wins)
Mike Clay’s projection: 12.3 wins (NFL rank: 2)
Super Bowl winner +500
• San Francisco has gone over its win total in back-to-back seasons and has 12+ wins in consecutive seasons.
• The 49ers have averaged 10.8 wins over the last five seasons .
• This is San Francisco’s fifth straight season with a win total in double digits (10.5, 10.5, 10, 11).
Kansas City Chiefs (11.5)
Clay’s projection: 11.4 wins (NFL rank: 4)
Super Bowl winner +650
• Kansas City has won at least 12 games in five of the six seasons with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB, with last season being the lone exception (11-6).
• This is the sixth consecutive season (since 2019) that Kansas City has a win total of at least 10, the most of any team over that span.
• After going over its win total in each of the first eight seasons under Andy Reid (2013-20), Kansas City has failed to go over its win total in two of the last three seasons (under 11.5 in 2023, over 10.5 in 2022, push 12 in 2021).
• In the 11 seasons under Andy Reid, Kansas City has won 10+ games 10 times, Two more than any other team since 2013 (New England, 8). This includes nine straight 10-win seasons (2015-23), tied with Indianapolis (2002-10) for the third-longest streak in league history (New England, 17 from 2003-19; San Francisco, 16 from 1983-98).
Baltimore Ravens (11.5)
Clay’s projection: 11.3 wins (NFL rank: 3)
Super Bowl winner +900
• This is Baltimore’s fifth straight season with a win total in double digits (11.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10 in 2023).
• The Ravens have gone under their win total in three of the last four seasons (went over last season).
Detroit Lions (10.5)
Clay’s projection: 10.7 wins (NFL rank: 4)
Super Bowl winner +1100
• This is Detroit’s highest win total over the last 35 seasons, surpassing last season’s mark of 9.5 (finished 12-5).
• Detroit is looking to go over its win total in three consecutive seasons for the first time since 1993-95.
Buffalo Bills (10.5)
Clay’s projection: 10 wins (NFL rank: 9)
Super Bowl winner +1200
• Since Sean McDermott became the Bills’ head coach in 2017, Buffalos has gone over its win total in all seven seasons (2017-23), the longest active streak of any team.
• The Bills have won 11+ games in four straight seasons.
• Josh Allen has won 10+ games in every season as full-time starter.
Cincinnati Bengals (10.5)
Clay’s projection: 10.3 wins (NFL rank: 7)
Super Bowl winner +1400
• Cincinnati is seeking its fourth straight winning season (franchise record is five, set from 2011-15).
• The Bengals have a double-digit win total in the second straight season (hadn’t had a win total of 10+ since 1989).
Dallas Cowboys (10.5)
Clay’s projection: 11.3 wins (NFL rank: 5)
Super Bowl winner +1600
• This would be the 21st consecutive season (since 2004) that Dallas has a win total of at least 8. That would tie New England (21 straight from 2002-22) for the longest streak by any team this century.
• Dallas has gone over its win total in each of the last three seasons (12-5 each season).
Philadelphia Eagles (10.5)
Clay’s projection: 9.8 wins (NFL rank: 11)
Super Bowl winner +1600
• Philadelphia has gone under the total in seven of its last eight seasons when it has had a win total of 10+.
• The Eagles have 11+ wins in back-to-back seasons. They haven’t had three straight such seasons since a five-season streak from 2000-04).
Miami Dolphins (9.5)
Clay’s projection: 9.8 wins (NFL rank: 10)
Super Bowl winner +2000
• Miami hasn’t gone under its win total since 2017 (four overs and two pushes).
• This is the Dolphins’ second straight season with a 9.5 win total, tied for their highest since 1999 (10).
Green Bay Packers (9.5)
Clay’s projection: 9.0 wins (NFL rank: 14)
Super Bowl winner +2200
• Green Bay has gone over its win total in four of the last five season. The only under cam in 2022 when they had nine wins and projected total of 11.
• The Packers have had five straight winning seasons.
Houston Texans (9.5)
Clay’s projection: 8.7 wins (NFL rank: 15)
Super Bowl winner +2200
• Coming off a 10-7 season, this would be Houston’s highest win total since 2013 (10.5); it finished 2-14 that season, tied for its fewest wins in franchise history (2005). That 8.5 difference from preseason to actual win total was the largest in a season by any team since Houston joined the league in 2002.
• The Texans are 13-6-3 on season-long win totals in franchise history but have only gone over once in the last four seasons.
New York Jets (9.5)
Clay’s projection: 11.7 wins (NFL rank: 2)
Super Bowl winner +2500
• This would be the second straight season New York has a win total of 9.5 (finished 7-10 in 2023); prior to that, its last season with a win total that high was 2011 (10), when it was coming off consecutive AFC championship game appearances.
• New York has missed the playoffs in 13 consecutive seasons, the longest active playoff drought in the NFL (2011-23); it only has one 10-win season over that span (10-6 in 2015).
Atlanta Falcons (9.5)
Clay’s projection: 9.5 wins (NFL rank: 12)
Super Bowl winner +3000
• Atlanta is one of two teams that will have a starting quarterback (Kirk Cousins) returning from Achilles injuries this past season (Aaron Rodgers with the Jets is the other).
• The Falcons have gone under their win total in five of the last six seasons, covering only in 2022 with seven wins on a projected 4.5 total.
• Atlanta’s last winning season came in 2017 (10-7).
• This is the Falcons’ highest win total since 2018 (also 9.5); their last higher total was 10 in 2013.
Los Angeles Chargers (8.5)
Clay’s projection: 7.9 wins (NFL rank: 21)
Super Bowl winner +3000
• The Chargers are one of six teams whose projected win total is at least 2.5 higher than its 2023 actual win total.
• New head coach Jim Harbaugh led San Francisco to a 13-3 record in his first season there in 2011 after it went 6-10 the previous year; Los Angeles went 5-12 in 2023 and has a win total of 8.5 for 2024.
Cleveland Browns (8.5)
Clay’s projection: 10.2 wins (NFL rank: 8)
Super Bowl winner +3500
• Cleveland has split its last six win totals (had gone under in nine of the previous 10 seasons).
• The Browns have two winning seasons in last four seasons (they hadn’t had one prior to that since 2007).
Jacksonville Jaguars (8.5)
Clay’s projection: 8.5 wins (NFL rank: 17)
Super Bowl winner +3500
• Jacksonville has gone under its win total in five of the last six seasons (the lone over: came in 2022 when the Jaguars won nine on a 6.5 total).
• Over the last 16 seasons, the Jaguars have had only three sinning campaigns and one season of 10+ wins.
Los Angeles Rams (8.5)
Clay’s projection: 7.6 wins (NFL rank: 23)
Super Bowl winner +3500
• The Rams have gone over their win total in five of seven seasons under head coach Sean McVay, including all three where their win total was under 10.
• The Rams have gone over 8.5 wins in all but one season under McVay following 13 straight seasons of eight or fewer wins.
Chicago Bears (8.5)
Clay’s projection: 8.6 wins (NFL rank: 16)
Super Bowl winner +4000
• Chicago went just under its win total of 7.5 last season (finished 7-10) and hasn’t reached 9+ wins in a season since 2018 (12-4).
• The Bears’ last over came in 2018 (four unders and one push since then).
• This is Chicago’s highest win total projection since 2019 (9).
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5)
Clay’s projection: 8.1 wins (NFL rank: 20)
Super Bowl winner +6000
• Pittsburgh went 10-7 last season and has finished .500 or better in 20 straight seasons (2004-23), one shy of matching the longest streak in league history (Dallas, 21 straight from 1965-85).
• The Steelers have gone over their win total in four straight seasons and eight of last 10.
Indianapolis Colts (8.5)
Clay’s projection: 8.1 wins (NFL rank: 19)
Super Bowl winner +5000
• Indianapolis has had a winning season in four of last six seasons.
• The Colts are looking to go over their win total in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2012-14 (three straight).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.5)
Clay’s projection: 7.7 wins (NFL rank: 22)
Super Bowl winner +6000
• Tampa Bay has gone over its win total in four of last five seasons.
• The Buccaneers are seeking back-to-back winning seasons for the second time in last 15 seasons (accomplished in 2020-21 with Tom Brady).
Seattle Seahawks (7.5)
Clay’s projection: 8.5 wins (NFL rank: 18)
Super Bowl winner +7500
• Seattle has won 8+ games in 11 of the last 12 seasons and is 4-1-1 on win totals over the last six seasons.
• The 7.5 wins is tied for the Seahawks’ second-lowest total in the last decade (5.5 in 2022; went over).
New Orleans Saints (7.5)
Clay’s projection: 9.2 wins (NFL rank: 13)
Super Bowl winner +10000
• This is the first sub-.500 win total for New Orleans since 2016 (7 wins, pushed).
• The Saints have gone under their win total in back-to-back seasons (went 4-0-1 in previous five).
Minnesota Vikings (6.5)
Clay’s projection: 6.8 wins (NFL rank: 25)
Super Bowl winner +4000
• Minnesota has gone under its win total in three of the last four seasons (went over in 2022 with 13 wins on a 9.5 total).
• This is the Vikings’ lowest win total since 2014 (6, went over).
Las Vegas Raiders (6.5)
Clay’s projection: 6.1 wins (NFL rank: 27)
Super Bowl winner +7500
• The Raiders have gone over their win total in four of the last five seasons (went under with 6 wins with an 8.5 total in 2022).
• This is the Raiders’ second straight season with a 6.5 win total, tied for their lowest since 2019 (6, went over).
Arizona Cardinals (6.5)
Clay’s projection: 5.6 wins (NFL rank: 28)
Super Bowl winner +10000
• The Cardinals have gone under their win total in two straight seasons but haven’t gone under in three straight since 2016-18 (had four straight unders from 1989-92).
• Arizona has had just one winning season since winning 13 games in 2015 (went 11-6 in 2021).
New York Giants (6.5)
Clay’s projection: 4.3 wins (NFL rank: 32)
Super Bowl winner +15000
• New York has gone under its win total in six of the last seven seasons, with the lone exception coming in 2022 when it made the divisional round. The six unders since 2017 are tied with Denver for the most of any team.
• This is the Giants’ seventh straight season with a win total under .500 (last over .500 was in 2017 when they won 3 on a 9-win total).
• The Giants have just one winning season over their last seven campaigns (9-7-1 in 2022).
Tennessee Titans (6.5)
Clay’s projection: 6.3 wins (NFL rank: 26)
Super Bowl winner +15000
• This is Tennessee’s lowest win total since 2016 (6, went over).
• The Titans have gone under their win total in back-to-back seasons but haven’t gone under in three straight since at least 1990.
Washington Commanders (6.5)
Clay’s projection: 5.0 wins (NFL rank: 30)
Super Bowl winner +15000
• Washington’s last winning season came in 2015.
• Have had over 6.5 wins in three of the last four seasons (4 wins in 2023).
Denver Broncos (5.5)
Clay’s projection: 5 wins (NFL rank: 30)
Super Bowl winner +7500
• Denver has gone under its win total in each of the last four seasons (2020-23), the longest active streak in the league.
• Denver won eight games last season but has a projection of 5.5 wins for this season. The only other team with that large a decrease from its 2023 actual win total is Cleveland (11 wins in 2023, 8.5 win total in 2024).
New England Patriots (4.5)
Clay’s projection: 4.9 wins (NFL rank: 31)
Super Bowl winner +15000
• This is New England’s lowest season win total since 1991 (O/U 4, finished 6-10).
• New England had four wins last season (O/U 7.5), its fewest in a season since 1992 (finished 2-14).
Carolina Panthers (4.5)
Clay’s projection: 7 wins (NFL rank: 24)
Super Bowl winner +25000
• This is Carolina’s lowest win total since 2011 (also 4.5, went over).
• The Panthers haven’t had a win total projection below 4.5 since 1995 (3, went over).
• Carolina has gone under its win total in five of the last six seasons (won 7 on a 6.5 total in 2022).
