Could this be it for Kyle Larson’s 2024 season?

Homestead-Miami Speedway was a microcosm of Kyle Larson’s entire season. A fast car, shocking setbacks, unforced errors and remarkable comebacks — and in the end, it was all for naught. 

A surprise cut tire put Larson in the wall and out of contention for the majority of Sunday’s race. Just as he was making a little headway, the spun car of Chris Buescher forced him to come to a complete stop on pit road. No one expected to see him near the front again, and yet, he did make his way back through the field. Closing in on Ryan Blaney for the race lead in the final 15 laps of the race, he tried to shoot the gap up the middle as they lapped Austin Dillon, only to spin out.

To his credit, Larson did save it and was still scored third on track, but a slow stop to fix the diffuser flap left him mired in the middle of the pack. He ended the day as the seventh worst playoff driver in 13th place. It just seemed destined to end poorly for him, and that’s kind of been the story of his year at some of these races.

Although, this season, no driver can even touch Larson in laps led and he has double the race wins of the closest competition, but there were so many ‘almost’ wins that didn’t materialize either. It seems like the same cycle again and again with the driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. Fast car, dominant showing, bad luck and/or unforced error, sometimes followed by an impressive comeback, but almost always too little too late. 

It’s much like his attempt at ‘The Double’ where it was all going splendidly until he landed himself a speeding penalty during his final stop at the Indianapolis 500. Despite the disappointment, he still got on a plane and made haste for Charlotte, determined to be the first driver to complete this challenge in a decade. He arrived just in time for rain to prematurely end the Coke 600.

Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports, HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro, Chris Buescher, RFK Racing, Fifth Third Bank Ford Mustang, Todd Gilliland, Front Row Motorsports, Grillo’s Pickles Ford Mustang, Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing, Rheem Toyota Camry wreck

Photo by: Nigel Kinrade / NKP / Motorsport Images

The inconsistency and volatile nature of his season is part of the reason why he lost the regular season championship. Missing the 600 didn’t help, but there was a mountain of points left on the table beyond that and he only lost out to Tyler Reddick by a single point. Those handful of bonus points may come back to haunt him in a few days.

But could it really happen? Is Larson’s 2024 title run about to mimic his attempt to win at Homestead, his missed opportunity at the regular season title or his pursuit of the double, ultimately slipping through his fingertips no matter how hard he tries?

It wouldn’t be the first time the ‘best’ driver of the year didn’t even get a shot at Phoenix. Kevin Harvick in 2020 comes to mind, as he looked unstoppable before failing to earn one of those four coveted spots in the finale. It was an abrupt end to a championship-worthy season and it felt strange to crown the champion with that year’s dominant force on the sidelines. And here it could happen again.

With Joey Logano and Reddick leapfrogging everyone with their impressive Round of 8 wins, Larson now enters the penultimate race of the year seven points below the cut-line. Yes, he can points race William Byron and maybe advance that way, but a win is likely needed. At Homestead, three drivers in what was essentially a must-win situation were running 1-2-3 on the final lap. Looking at the standings, the three drivers below Larson in the standings are going to be at the sharp end of the field this weekend.

Regarding Martinsville, Larson himself admitted that “it’s not my best track,” and the driver he’s chasing [Byron] happens to be the most recent winner there. Funnily enough, Larson was second in that race. That may be little consolation though. Denny Hamlin has more wins at the Virginia short track than any active driver, Ryan Blaney has the highest average-finish, Chase Elliott is always one to watch at Martinsville and all are below Larson in the standings entering the Round of 8 elimination race.

It’s certainly beginning to feel like we’re destined to watch this format doom the season of yet another driver worthy of fighting for the championship. But hey, if we’re going to commit to looking at the trends  … the Round of 12 and Round of 16 elimination races this year were won by the same driver and his name was Larson — dominating both.