Four years ago, the Milwaukee Bucks won their first NBA championship since 1971. Since then, they have acquired a Hall-of-Famer in Damian Lillard, had their other Hall-of-Famer Giannis Antetokounmpo enter his prime years, and yet counterintuitively fallen near the bottom of the NBA.
The Bucks are 12th by win/loss record, but they might be outright last in vibes, and that shadow has been percolating for a while.
Over the offseason, the Bucks moved around the end of their bench. Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Robin Lopez, Jae Crowder, Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari were all allowed to leave, aged veterans who were struggling to play replacement-level ball who nevertheless combined for 294 minutes in six playoff games. In their stead came Delon Wright, Taurean Prince and Gary Trent Jr, all a slightly younger flavor of veterans intended to improve the legs of an old roster. Yet nothing has improved. The pace is down, the defense (which was last year’s Achilles heel and led to the in-season firing of Adrian Griffin) is worse, and the offense is far worse.
Moreover, the Bucks do not have many options for changing that. Precisely because of the Lillard trade – which saw them fire off their last few bullets in the trade market – the Bucks have incredibly few assets with which to try and change their roster. They are moribund, lackluster, expensive, disjointed, capped-out, asset-deprived and not very good.
There is, though, one potential massive trade asset on the table. What if they were to trade Giannis?
Moving Giannis is an unequivocal admission that the contending window is over. There is no path to getting back to the top without him in it. If the Bucks decide to finally end their partnership after 12 years together, so is any dream of contention, and given how sparse the draft capital cupboard is, it will be a very long road back.
That said, for each extra game they move under .500 after 18 months of discontent, the unthinkable becomes more thinkable. It is entirely fair to conclude that Antetokounmpo will only be traded when the day comes that he asks to be. Yet it is also entirely fair to conclude that, if the struggles continue, that day comes ever closer. Turning 30 in December, Giannis is entering the back nine of his career, and his individual greatness has probably peaked.
In regards to the question of which teams around the league would be interested in him; the answer, to varying degrees, is all of them. As for which teams could possibly put together sufficiently enticing trade packages, that list is far shorter.
There follows a look at some potential landing destinations for Antetokounmpo, should the worst keep coming to the worst.
By virtue of their plethora of assets – not least of which is their substantial bank of draft capital – the Thunder find themselves in a unique position among the league’s contending teams. Put simply, by already being one of the league’s best teams, having youth on their side, freedom under the salary aprons and a ton of picks available to share, they can win any bidding war they choose to enter.
Indeed, the most difficult aspect of any trade might be finding enough salary. The Thunder have good flexibility in their salary picture, with only the contracts of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($35,859,950) and Isaiah Hartenstein ($30,000,000) earning more than $16.5 million. By contrast, Giannis will earn $48,787,676 in the 2024-25 season; to match that amount in trade, the Thunder will have to either wait until Hartenstein is trade-eligible (after 15th December), or package together other players such as Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins to meet the required matching salary.
Nevertheless, with all due respect to quality players such as Hartenstein and Dort, it should not be a problem to include them in a trade for Antetokounmpo. If the Thunder decide that they are already good enough to go for it, even when their core is so young, then it will surely be harder to find a better trade target than Giannis. After all, if you cannot justify trading the excess of picks for him, what are they for?
The potential gear-change hypothesized above for the Oklahoma City Thunder already happened some time ago in Houston. After picking in the Top 5 of the draft three times between 2021 and 2023, the Rockets made a conscious directional shift that summer by targeting veterans such as Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks in free agency, and yet were able to get lucky in the lottery and win another Top 3 pick in 2024 (selecting Reed Sheppard).
As a result, they now have both the young core and the veteran support. VanVleet, Brooks and deadline trade acquisition Steven Adams flank Sheppard, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore; with a 7-4 record thus far in 2024-25, the Rockets are quite a good team, hoping to grow into a great one. And with the infusion of the Greek Freak, they could well do so.
If Milwaukee were to prioritize quality young veterans in a Giannis package, Houston would be well-positioned in the bidding war. The dismantling of the previous James Harden-based competitive Rockets team has also left the team in an asset-positive position when it comes to draft picks, with almost all of their first-round debts either paid off or relinquished. The Rockets, then, could put together a good package based around (for example) Green, Smith, Eason and something approaching the “full package” of firsts that has become the norm in trades for superstars. If they do so, and come away with a line-up of VanVleet, Brooks, Thompson, Antetokounmpo and Sengun, their journey to the top of the West could be sped up.
Whatever else we can say of the Nets franchise since its move from New Jersey to Brooklyn, we can all agree that they take a chance. They took a chance with the Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett deal of the Mikhail Prokhorov days, they took a chance assembling the Kevin Durant/Kyrie Irving/James Harden trio, and they took a chance blowing it up and venturing into the darkness. Perhaps, then, it is in their nature to take one more.
Additionally, we can surely all agree that the massive expiring salary of Ben Simmons exists mostly as a trade facilitator. Any team looking to shed salary – which a capped-out, tax-burdened Bucks without Giannis would definitely be – should place a call to Brooklyn for that thing, particularly if they can find some use for the much-diminished-yet-useful Simmons on the court for a few months.
It will, however, take much more than just salary relief to acquire a Top 5 player in the world. Brooklyn has plenty of draft capital to work with, their cupboard restocked by the Mikal Bridges trade to the Knicks, and has a good card to play in the form of Milwaukee’s own 2025 pick, which they own. In terms of incumbent talents on their roster, everyone – including Cams Johnson and Thomas, Nic Claxton, Dennis Schroeder, and whoever else is so desired – should be considered available, as, while several players have penciled-in places in the team’s future, no one has become a foundational piece at this time.
Indeed, that fluidity might be what counts against Brooklyn in these hypothetical negotiations. As of right now, fuelled by Simmons’ contract, they are positioning themselves for cap room in the summer of 2025, to the point that Thomas did not even get an extension lest it erode some of their space. Far from joining a contender, then, Giannis would be joining a team with 14 spots to play for. This might not be an improvement on his current situation.
Every season, when the name of a superstar gets floated, you can expect to see the Miami Heat’s name attached. You can set a particularly slow watch to it. Pat Riley’s Heat pursue stars over rebuilds, and always have. And if their conversion rate is low, it is only because they are always playing the game.
Giannis will be no different. If there is any fire at the base of the (admittedly currently artificial) smoke, we can expect to see Riley pouring a can of gasoline on it. It is a strategy that sometimes lands them Terry Rozier and Victor Oladipo types more than the true superstars, yet it is never for a lack of trying.
Rozier ($24,924,126), Tyler Herro ($29,000,000) and Duncan Robinson ($19,406,000), or some combination thereof, would likely be the first names on the chopping block for having the right size salaries. But none are needle-moving players, and while the Heat have some useful other pieces such as Jaime Jacquez, Kel’el Ware and Pelle Larson to offer, neither are they. All those names combined still come a long way short of what would be required; the Heat are towards the bottom of the NBA when it comes to a ranking of assets, and they will not be able to simply will a Giannis deal into existence.
A path to Giannis, then, involve moving either Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo. And even if so, does such an offer compete with the other teams on this list?
Not really through any fault of his own, Brandon Ingram’s position on the Pelicans roster has been in flux for a while. He was once the centerpiece of the return for Anthony Davis, but those days are long gone, and for now, he represents an awkward and expensive fit on a roster that currently is stuck in a rut.
The anointed superstar, Zion Williamson, is once again injured. So too are backcourt trade acquisitions Dejounte Murray and CJ McCollum, who were supposed to raise the floor of this team but who can only do so when they play. Jordan Hawkins is in and out, as is Herb Jones, while Trey Murphy III is just out. And now, Jose Alvarado will also join them. The Pelicans are gimpy, not very good (ranking last in the NBA in defense, and not fairing much better on offense), and need to once again be rejuvenated. And as the player with both the highest immediate value and the least-obvious long-term fit, Ingram becomes the most tradeable piece by default.
If the Bucks do not want the 27-year-old Ingram, he can be repositioned in a multi-team deal, leaving the question of what they do want from a Pelicans team that has some assets to offer. The Pelicans can – and do – tell anyone who will listen about their loves for Jones and Murphy, and mean it, yet neither should be prohibitive to trade for Giannis, who would take much of their spot anyway. Hawkins, a quality young scorer, could also be on the table given that Murray and McCollum are on the more appropriate timeline, and would certainly be something of interest to the Bucks. as might young center Yves Missi, who represents the upside play that a rebuilding team needs.
The question, though, is whether the Pelicans would want to pair Antetokounmpo with Zion, or acquire him instead of Zion. If it is the former, the package becomes harder to construct, even with Ingram as a foundation. If it is the latter, would Milwaukee take the risk of the oft-injured flawed superstar when they have other options available?
The bookmakers seem to think that the Clippers are one of the more likely trade destinations for the Greek Freak. Bookmakers, though, are there to follow the money more than the facts. And the facts of the Clippers’ situation make it harder to see a deal happening.
Having lost Paul George over the summer and never truly having Kawhi Leonard any more, the Clippers are in the NBA’s purgatory of being a low playoff seed with an aged roster, and their 6-5 record rather flatters a rotation that is relying so much on Terance Mann, Derrick Jones Jr and Amir Coffey. That said, precisely because of that reliance and that purgatory, they would love to make the massive upgrade that Giannis represents, and get back into the conversation at the top of the league that they have not been in for some years. With the lure of being a destination city working in their favor, and an absolute palace of a new arena to play in, top-tier players are generally amenable to playing for the Clippers these days. The question becomes, given that George left for no returning assets, how to acquire them.
The surplus PJ Tucker can help fill salaries, and late-career breakout star Norman Powell (and his 26.5 points per game) would be a logical starting point, albeit one likely rerouted to a third team. The well-bankrolled Clippers could also provide salary relief, which might make small inroads into offsetting their sub-par assets. But they have virtually no draft capital to offer. Perhaps they might need to include the arena in a deal.
When it comes to strategic direction, the Knicks have been quite clear. They have acquired all of OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns via trade in just the last 12 months. Why not go for one more?
The difficulty will be finding the levers to pull to do so. By virtue of completing all three of those trades, plus the very fair assumption that Jalen Brunson is off limits, the Knicks used up a lot of their assets on the market. And although those players (Anunoby in particular) could be repackaged for Antetokounmpo, the very fact that they were acquired as win-now pieces by the Knicks is evidence that they would not be the ideal return for a Giannis-less Milwaukee team that would definitely not be looking to do that.
If the Knicks get in on the Giannis bidding, then, a multi-way trade may have to be the way to go. Both Josh Hart ($18,144,000) and Mitchell Robinson ($14,318,182) have salaries that could facilitate a deal, and while the Knicks do not have much draft capital to spend – at all – they would at least offer all of it. To complete a deal, though, they will likely have to find a third team that is attempting to improve their forward rotation, win now, settle for Anunoby over Antetokounmpo and improve a rival in the process. That is not easy to envisage.
If there is a path to ever pairing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs have to take.
The greatest of both as individuals is well-documented. Yet the potential of a duo as being even greater than the sum of their parts is tantalizing. Wembanyama’s defensive range can complement Antetokounmpo’s, as well as relieve the burden on him on that end, something Giannis will be grateful for as he enters his 30s. And offensively, with Chris Paul to join it all up and some youth in the legs of Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell (when healthy) and others, the Spurs could considerably pick up their pace of play and create easy offense to pair with a dominant defensive duo.
Of course, some of that youth would have to be outgoing in trade, and as the man to most immediately lose his spot, Sochan would likely be a key part of it. San Antonio is also a smaller market team and less willing to stack payroll, which inhibits their ability to explore avenues such as taking on the salary of Khris Middleton that might become higher up Milwaukee’s priority list as a deal edges closer. Nevertheless, if everyone except Victor is potentially available – as well as their many, many outstanding draft picks – the Spurs have an opportunity to put together a package to rival anybody’s.
