McLaren repeat Red Bull’s Hungaroring error with conservative Spa strategy · RaceFans

It looked like George Russell and Mercedes had pulled off one of the boldest tactical calls of the season as he eked out his second set of tyres and held off his team mate to score victory in the Belgian Grand Prix.

On the face of it, Russell had mugged the competition by making a one-stop strategy work. Not least because he made his sole pit stop earlier than anyone else among the top four teams made their first of two, with the exception of Max Verstappen, who followed Russell in.

On the face of it, any of those other six drivers were better placed than Russell to make a one-stop strategy work because their second sets of tyres were fresher. This was truest of all for Lando Norris, who took his original set of medium tyres longer than anyone else, pitting on lap 15.

If anyone could make a one-stop strategy work, surely he could? And McLaren had every motivation to try it: A poor start turned fourth on the grid for Norris to seventh in the opening stint. By lap 28 Verstappen was already in for his second stop and Norris’ chance to undercut his title rival was gone.

At this point, if McLaren thought a one-stop strategy was realistic, it was the time to risk it and leave Norris out. They brought him in.

What did McLaren know that Mercedes didn’t? Probably nothing: Rather, it seems both were operating in the dark and one was willing to risk more. Neither team had run the hard tyre in practice on Friday, and with the track rubbering-in quickly both were unsure exactly what to expect from it.

After the race McLaren team principal Andrea Stella said Mercedes’ call had taken “courage”. But if it looked like McLaren had played it too safe, that all changed when Russell was disqualified. The stewards found his car was underweight and Mercedes suggested they had underestimated how much weight his tyres would lose over that 34-lap final stint, three laps longer than anyone else’s.

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McLaren therefore deserve the benefit of the doubt for steering clear of the one-stop strategy. However they did allow Norris to be undercut by Verstappen at the first round of pit stops despite knowing they had the luxury of one more set of hard tyres than their rivals, which should have allowed them to be more aggressive. The chance to undercut Verstappen disappeared before their second stops as Red Bull tactically pitted Sergio Perez early, placing him in Verstappen’s pit window, knowing they could safely bring their lead car out behind the second Red Bull but McLaren couldn’t risk the same for Norris.

Norris’ advantage over Verstappen vanished soon after the start as the McLaren driver lost three places by running into the gravel at La Source. However the team should have been able to ensure he kept ahead of the driver he most needed to take points off.

According to Stella, McLaren’s preference to bring Norris in later came from their expectation fresher tyres would make overtaking easier. But with tyres degrading less severely than expected, and with a shorter DRS zone on the Kemmel straight, this wasn’t the case.

Ironically McLaren, who enjoyed a one-two finish at the Hungaroring a week earlier, had been undone by the same error their rivals Red Bull made with their strategy in that race, by expecting fresher tyres would enable significantly easier overtaking.

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2024 Belgian Grand Prix lap chart

The positions of each driver on every lap. Click name to highlight, right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

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2024 Belgian Grand Prix race chart

The gaps between each driver on every lap compared to the leader’s average lap time. Very large gaps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

2024 Belgian Grand Prix lap times

All the lap times by the drivers (in seconds, very slow laps excluded). Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and toggle drivers using the control below:

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2024 Belgian Grand Prix fastest laps

Each driver’s fastest lap:

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2024 Belgian Grand Prix tyre strategies

The tyre strategies for each driver:

2024 Belgian Grand Prix pit stop times

How long each driver’s pit stops took:

2024 Belgian Grand Prix

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