The ultimate week of the 2024 NFL season is right here and whereas many of the playoff image was solidified final week, there are nonetheless just a few video games on the Week 18 slate with playoff implications heading into wild card weekend.
The week kicks off on Saturday with an AFC doubleheader. First, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens tackle the Cleveland Browns, and the Ravens opened as the biggest favourite on the slate at -14.5 over the Browns (4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). Then within the night time sport, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals journey to Pittsburgh to face Russell Wilson and the Steelers (8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+).
The Sunday slate of video games options two matchups that may resolve each the NFC North and South divisions. Within the early afternoon window, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to clinch their division with a win over the New Orleans Saints. Then, the NFL common season concludes with a showdown for the NFC North division and No. 1 seed within the playoffs between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.
Our staff takes an early have a look at the chances to seek out worth earlier than traces transfer later within the week.
All odds are correct as of time stamp. For the most recent odds go to ESPN BET.
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first guess: Philadelphia Eagles 1H (-2.5) vs. New York Giants
Does Philadelphia actually need to roll into the primary spherical of the playoffs with Jalen Hurts having thrown simply 4 passes in below 4 weeks’ time? I would not be shocked if head coach Nick Sirianni had his starters on the market for a pair quarters simply to get Hurts some reside motion earlier than heading into the postseason. As for the Giants, they simply performed their Tremendous Bowl in Week 17 by way of an ill-advised 45-33 win over Indianapolis. I feel New York goes proper again into the tank in Week 18 with tropical trip on the horizon. Bonus: Maintain a watch out for Hurts below props.
Seth Walder: Pat Surtain II to win Defensive Participant of the Yr (+140)
I’ve by no means actually been on board with T.J. Watt being the DPOY favourite as he has been for weeks, regardless of trailing different move rushers in key metrics: Watt’s 11.5 sacks is 2.5 off the lead and tied for fourth; he ranks twenty eighth within the league with 34 pressures; and his 17% move rush win fee ranks sixteenth. However a participant who has been dominant at their place is Surtain. The Broncos cornerback has allowed 0.6 yards per protection snap, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats, which is finest amongst all exterior corners with not less than 200 protection snaps. His 11% goal fee ranks fourth-best and his negative-26 EPA allowed ranks second-best amongst that very same group. Whereas he did not shut out Ja’Marr Chase (nobody does) in Week 17, Surtain greater than held his personal, permitting simply 27 yards as the closest defender to Chase, regardless of lining up reverse him on 77% of his snaps. Most of Chase’s manufacturing got here when he was marked by another person. To me, Surtain is a transparent alternative over Watt and I would guess the voters view it the identical manner.
I’d additionally sprinkle a bit of on Trey Hendrickson at 60-1, as a result of when you may get the sack chief (with an outdoor probability to assist his staff get to the playoffs or not less than have an enormous Week 18 prime time sport) at 60-1… that absolutely is a price.
Ben Solak: Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Final week: Texans below 20.5 staff whole factors (-125). Texans misplaced to Ravens 34-10.
Betting early into Week 18 is all the time difficult, as you should concentrate on which groups have incentives to play and which groups will look to relaxation their starters. The Chargers can have an enormous incentive to win their Sunday sport in opposition to the Raiders if the Steelers lose to the Bengals on Saturday, as a Chargers win would give them the No. 5 seed and a draw in opposition to the AFC South champion Houston Texans — far preferable to a visit to Baltimore or Pittsburgh.
I additionally think about head coach Jim Harbaugh goes to play most of his starters, and even when he benches Justin Herbert, backup Taylor Heinicke would be the higher of the 2 quarterbacks on this sport. Harbaugh mentioned when requested about sitting gamers in Week 18: “11 sounds higher than 10,” referring to the staff’s variety of wins. I am keen to purchase the road now, as I get nice worth if the Steelers fall (Pittsburgh is three-point dwelling canine as of proper now) and I nonetheless am getting a reduction on the Chargers’ starters in opposition to the Raiders if Harbaugh insists on retaining his gamers in for an in any other case meaningless sport.
Andre Snellings: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs and Denver Broncos over 38.5 factors
Final week: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs-Pittsburgh Steelers below 42.5 factors. Line closed at 45.5. Chiefs received 29-10
Whereas the Chiefs are prone to sit Patrick Mahomes this week to relaxation his gentle high-ankle sprain, I discover that Chris Jones can be one other seemingly sit candidate along with another key personnel coping with an damage. The Chiefs’ id this season has been their protection, but when Jones and probably different starters sit it might negatively have an effect on their protection much more than their offense. As for the Broncos, regardless of their status as a defense-first staff, Denver has been persistently taking part in in high-scoring video games for months now. In actual fact, because the finish of September, the one Broncos sport that did not go over 38.5 mixed factors was their 16-14 loss to the Chiefs in Kansas Metropolis in Week 10. Of their different 11 matchups in that stretch, they and their opponents have mixed to common 50.1 PPG.
Pamela Maldonado: Raiders (+5.5) vs. Chargers
Final week: Seattle Seahawks-Chicago Bears, first half below 20.5 factors. Seahawks received 6-3.
Aidan O’Connell has emerged as a shock star in opposition to the unfold, crafting a 13-3 ATS file in his profession — a mark tied for the second-best begin by way of 16 video games by any quarterback in historical past. It isn’t only a pattern; it is a testomony to his knack for outperforming expectations, particularly within the underdog position. Las Vegas has discovered some late-season battle, rattling off two straight wins to inject a little bit of life into their 4-12 marketing campaign.
Extra from ESPN Betting:
