NFL Week 9 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

Falcons storyline to watch: The offensively versatile Falcons might become a run-first team again this weekend. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most touchdowns on the ground (12) and the fourth-highest yards per carry (tied, 4.8) in the league. To go deeper, Bijan Robinson has a league-best 57.6% success rate on under-center runs among running backs with at least 30 carries, while the Cowboys have given up the second-highest success rate (49.3%) on such runs, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Marc Raimondi

Stat to know: A defeat for the Cowboys would match their loss total from each of the previous three seasons (12-5 from 2021 to 2023).

Bold prediction: Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts will record under 25 receiving yards. I’m not expecting a breakout from him, not with a 33 open score anyway. That’s the worst among all qualifying tight ends and wide receivers. — Walder

Injuries: Cowboys | Falcons

Fantasy X factor: Robinson. He has had 18 or more touches and 20 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. Now, Robinson faces a Cowboys defense that ranks 30th in run stop win rate (26.7%) and gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their past five games following a loss (0-3 ATS after a loss this season). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Falcons 28, Cowboys 20
Moody’s pick: Falcons 31, Cowboys, 27
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 27, Falcons 23
FPI prediction: ATL, 56.7% (by an average of 2.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Another missed chance by Cowboys, Prescott versus 49ers … Falcons’ Pitts having career revival with help of ‘tight end gods’

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -6 (48.5 O/U)

Dolphins storyline to watch: Dolphins rookie running back Jaylen Wright leads the team in yards per carry (5.3). He averages only six touches per game to De’Von Achane’s and Raheem Mostert’s 11.6 and 11.3, respectively. Achane has been Miami’s best offensive player this season, and coach Mike McDaniel said Mostert has been a “gigantic tone-setter” for the team. Still, when asked about getting the rookie more involved, McDaniel said Miami will make the “necessary adjustments to make sure that he can contribute his skill set.” — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bills storyline to watch: Rookie receiver Keon Coleman has nine receptions for 195 yards in the past two games. He had 201 receiving yards in the first six games. “The trust that I have in him just grows day by day, and we get extra reps after practice, and you see that starting to pay dividends,” quarterback Josh Allen said. The Bills’ offense has had success at home this season, averaging 38.3 points in three games. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Dolphins have scored 28 total points in three road games this season. They have scored under 40 total points in their first four road games only once in franchise history (30 in 1967).

Bold prediction: Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid will record six or more receptions. Against the Dolphins, 23% of targets have gone to tight ends this season, which is tied for the highest rate in the NFL. — Walder

Injuries: Dolphins | Bills

Fantasy X factor: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. Buffalo’s passing game is trending up, with Allen throwing for 280 or more yards in consecutive games. Shakir has had seven or more targets and 13 or more fantasy points in those games. The Dolphins rank in the top eight in the league in their use of zone coverage, and Allen ranks near the top of the league in QBR against zone coverage. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 4-0-1 ATS in his career as at least a six-point underdog. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bills 30, Dolphins 21
Moody’s pick: Bills 34, Dolphins 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 30, Dolphins 23
FPI prediction: BUF, 72.0% (by an average of 9.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Tua stayed connected with Dolphins while on IR … Allen takes Bills QB room to World Series Game 4 … Tua praised for protecting self in Miami loss

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: CIN -7 (46.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders have already used four different starting offensive line combinations in eight games and might have to deploy a fifth against the Bengals. Center Andre James is dealing with a right ankle injury that knocked him out of last week’s loss to the Chiefs. Rookie left guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, who won the 2023 Rimington Trophy as the best college center, slid over to close out the game, without much of a drop-off. “I’ve got great guys around me,” Powers-Johnson said. “The whole line is pushing for me and wanting me to be great. … Definitely a learning curve, so I’ve got to get on the bike again and start riding the tricycle again.” — Paul Gutierrez

Bengals storyline to watch: One matchup could dictate how things go for the Bengals’ offense: left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who is battling a lower right leg injury ahead of Sunday’s game, vs. Maxx Crosby, who is ninth in the league in pass rush win rate as an edge rusher (22.3%). Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow knows the plan for success is simple: “The biggest thing is eliminate [Crosby’s] ability to affect the game.” — Ben Baby

Stat to know: Burrow has passed for fewer than 250 yards in three consecutive games, tied for the longest streak of his career. He has a total of 347 passing yards in two contests against the Raiders, including the playoffs.

Bold prediction: Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers will record 80-plus receiving yards. Meyers will face Bengals corner Cam Taylor-Britt, who has allowed 1.9 yards per coverage snap — fourth most among all outside corners with at least 100 coverage snaps. — Walder

Injuries: Raiders | Bengals

Fantasy X factor: Bengals running back Chase Brown. Cincinnati’s backfield started as a committee with Zack Moss and Brown, but Brown’s workload has ramped up lately. He has logged 14 or more touches in four of the past five games and scored 14-plus fantasy points in three of those. This week, he has a favorable matchup against a Raiders defense that is giving up the seventh-most rushing yards per attempt to running backs. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Raiders’ Antonio Pierce is 12-5 ATS in his career, which is the best mark of anyone who has coached at least 10 games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bengals 24, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Bengals 28, Raiders 24
Walder’s pick: Bengals 34, Raiders 19
FPI prediction: CIN, 65.0% (by an average of 5.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Pierce: Raiders must ‘clean up’ playcalling, offensive issues … 3 ways the Bengals’ defense regressed since Super Bowl LVI … Raiders’ run game reaches tragic low vs. Chiefs

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAC -1.5 (42.5 O/U)

Chargers storyline to watch: After throwing for fewer than 200 yards in each of the first four games this season, quarterback Justin Herbert heads to Cleveland on a three-game stretch of averaging 288 yards per game. Cleveland has allowed 200-plus passing yards four times. — Kris Rhim

Browns storyline to watch: QB Jameis Winston transformed the Browns’ offense in his first start — 334 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions — but is his performance sustainable? Sunday’s matchup against the Chargers, the best defense Cleveland has faced to date, will be telling. Los Angeles leads the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 13 points per game. — Daniel Oyefusi

Stat to know: This is the first meeting between these teams since Week 5 of 2022. The Chargers have won five of the past six meetings, dating to 2015.

Bold prediction: Winston will throw two or more interceptions. He had two dropped interceptions against the Ravens last week. He’s not going to get that lucky again. No quarterback has more than four dropped interceptions this season — and Winston has started only one game. — Walder

Injuries: Chargers | Browns

Fantasy X factor: Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman. He has two straight games of nine or more targets and at least 18.0 fantasy points. Tillman has stepped up big with Amari Cooper gone, and now he’s catching passes from Winston, which gives him an added edge. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chargers are 4-1 ATS as favorites this season, including 3-0 ATS against teams with losing records. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Chargers 24, Browns 22
Moody’s pick: Chargers 17, Browns 16
Walder’s pick: Chargers 23, Browns 16
FPI prediction: CLE, 54.3% (by an average of 1.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Chargers rookie performance in Week 8 offers vindication … QB Winston breathing new life into Browns’ offense … Winston to remain Browns’ QB1 after Ravens upset

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: TEN -3.5 (37.5 O/U)

Patriots storyline to watch: Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has been in concussion protocol since Sunday, but as a limited participant in practice throughout the week, coach Jerod Mayo is leaving open the possibility that he plays. “I do have confidence that if the league says he’s ready to play, he will be able to go out there and operate,” Mayo said. If Maye isn’t cleared to play, veteran Jacoby Brissett would get the start and rookie Joe Milton III would be the backup. — Mike Reiss

Titans storyline to watch: The Titans are yet to win a game at home this season. The Patriots haven’t won on the road since the season opener against the Bengals. At 1-6, no game should be taken for granted by the Titans. But this week should be an ideal opportunity for coach Brian Callahan to get his first win at Nissan Stadium. “I’m excited to get back in front of our fans and give them something to be excited about again.” — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: The Titans lost back-to-back games by at least 20 points for the first time since Weeks 13-14 in 2014. They haven’t lost three straight by 20 points since October 2009.

Bold prediction: Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez will record an interception. Gonzalez has the highest target rate among outside corners with a better-than-average yards per coverage snap and 100 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. In other words, the ball is coming his way but he’s not allowing lots of production. — Walder

Injuries: Patriots | Titans

Fantasy X factor: Titans running back Tony Pollard. He has been a consistent bright spot in a struggling offense. The Patriots’ defense has been vulnerable to running backs, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Pollard’s workload remains strong, with 18-plus touches in three straight games. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their past six games as underdogs. The Titans are 1-4 ATS as favorites since the start of last season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Patriots 24, Titans 17
Moody’s pick: Patriots 20, Titans 18
Walder’s pick: Titans 19, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: TEN, 60.3% (by an average of 4.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Pats QB Maye in concussion protocol … Being a first-time NFL head coach can be tough; just ask these 4

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1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: WSH -4 (44.5 O/U)

Commanders storyline to watch: Washington ranks second in the NFL in yards per run (5.2) and third in rush yards per game (165.8). Some of the latter total stems from quarterback Jayden Daniels, who averages 53 rushing yards per game. But the Commanders’ running backs still average a combined 5.2 per carry. Meanwhile, the Giants’ run defense ranks last in yards allowed per carry (5.4) and 27th in rush yards per game (141.8). Washington can hit big pass plays with Daniels, but facing strong edge pass rushers, the Commanders will look to control the game on the ground. — John Keim

Giants storyline to watch: Giants rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers is looking to bounce back from a game in which he had two key drops in Pittsburgh. He’s especially motivated against a Washington team that couldn’t stop him in the first meeting. Nabers had 10 catches for 127 yards and a touchdown in that matchup. He’s itching for another big game after two pedestrian performances coming off a concussion. — Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: The Giants are 0-4 at home this season, averaging 7.8 points per game (fewest in the NFL). They haven’t started 0-5 at home since 1974.

Bold prediction: The Commanders will break off a 20-plus-yard screen play at some point in the game. Washington runs screens 6% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league, and the Giants’ defense ranks 30th in EPA allowed per screen. — Walder

Injuries: Commanders | Giants

Fantasy X factor: Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin. He has had 16 or more fantasy points in five of his past six games. He has historically performed well against the Giants, averaging 9.1 targets and 16.5 fantasy points across 10 career games. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Unders are 4-0 in Giants home games this season. Overs are 4-0 in Commanders road games this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Commanders 30, Giants 23
Moody’s pick: Commanders 27, Giants 21
Walder’s pick: Commanders 30, Giants 14
FPI prediction: WSH, 65.5% (by an average of 5.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Inside Commanders’ wild Hail Mary to stun Bears … QB Jones ‘frustrated’ amid his, Giants’ struggles

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NO -7 (43.5 O/U)

Saints storyline to watch: Derek Carr is expected to start after missing the past three games because of an oblique injury, and Jake Haener will return to backing him up after the Saints went with rookie Spencer Rattler in Carr’s absence. The struggling Saints, who have lost six straight, have dropped to 21st in offensive yards per game (319.5) and last in defensive yard allowed (392.8) after a 2-0 start that began with a thrashing of the Panthers in Week 1. They’ll have most of the offense back from that game with the exception of center Erik McCoy (groin) and receiver Rashid Shaheed (knee). — Katherine Terrell

Panthers storyline to watch: Bryce Young will start again at quarterback, but he didn’t fare well in the Panthers’ first game against the Saints. He was sacked four times and passed for only 161 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. But Carolina’s biggest problem is defense, particularly with Carr returning. Carr had three passing TDs in Week 1, and the Saints rushed for 180 yards against a healthy Carolina defense. The Panthers have lost several key defenders since and are giving up an NFL-worst 154.6 rushing yards per game. — David Newton

Stat to know: Young is 2-17 as a starter and will make his 20th start Sunday. With a loss, Young would join Steve DeBerg and Chris Weinke as the only quarterbacks since 1950 to lose 18 of his first 20 career starts.

Bold prediction: Saints running back Alvin Kamara will rush for 100 or more yards. Carolina can’t stop the run — it ranks 32nd in run stop win rate (25.9%) and 28th in EPA allowed per designed carry (minus-2.91). Of course, the Panthers can’t stop the pass either, but the Saints can get Kamara more involved after taking an early lead. — Walder

Injuries: Saints | Panthers

Fantasy X factor: Saints wide receiver Chris Olave. He scored 18.7 fantasy points against the Chargers in Week 8 — a big relief for fantasy managers. Olave had just 2.5 points combined in Weeks 5 and 6 and then missed Week 7 against the Broncos. He’s positioned to maintain the positive momentum. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers are 1-7 against the spread this season, which is the worst ATS record in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Saints 21, Panthers 14
Moody’s pick: Saints 30, Panthers 17
Walder’s pick: Saints 27, Panthers 12
FPI prediction: NO, 71.5% (by an average of 8.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Can Saints snap six-game freefall against Panthers? … A rare feel-good story for Panthers in rookie UDFA WR Coker … Did Young do enough to get another start for Panthers?

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1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -9.5 (46.5 O/U)

Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos have their best record since they were 6-2 after eight games in the 2016 season, but they have found prosperity against several of the most wobbly teams in the league. Three wins have come over 2-6 teams (Jets, Saints and Raiders) to go with a win over a now 1-7 Carolina. The Ravens could offer quarterback Bo Nix, who is 27th in the league in yards per completion (4.72) and 26th in completion percentage, the opportunity for some big plays. Baltimore has surrendered 46 explosive plays (runs of at least 10 yards and completions of at least 20 yards). — Jeff Legwold

Ravens storyline to watch: The Ravens are 24-3 (.889), including the playoffs, at home against rookie starting quarterbacks in franchise history, which is the best home win percentage by any team since 1950. However, Denver’s Bo Nix hasn’t played like a first-year NFL quarterback, going 5-1 in his past six starts with eight touchdowns and one interception over that span. His five victories are the most by a rookie quarterback in Broncos history, surpassing John Elway and Drew Lock, both of whom had four each. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: Ravens running back Derrick Henry has nine straight games with a touchdown, dating to last season. That’s the third-longest streak by a player at age 30 or older in NFL history.

Bold prediction: Nix will record his first 300-yard passing game … in a loss. Denver will try to throw on the Ravens, whose defense is much weaker against the pass. The yardage will be there, but I fear it will mostly be in catch-up mode. — Walder

Injuries: Broncos | Ravens

Fantasy X factor: Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton. His fantasy production has swung like a pendulum this season. In Week 8, he saw 11 targets and hit a season-high 17.1 fantasy points against the Panthers. Now, he’s up against a Ravens defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 7-1 in Ravens games this season, which is the highest over percentage in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Ravens 33, Broncos 24
Moody’s pick: Ravens 35, Broncos 24
Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 76.6% (by an average of 10.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Nix, Payton finding groove together for surging Broncos … Ravens’ defensive ‘funk’ is biggest hurdle in championship hunt … Are the Broncos playoff contenders? Four things to prove

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4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: PHI -7.5 (45.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to watch: As bad as the Jaguars have been defensively — they’re on pace to allow the second-most yards (382.1) and points (28) per game in franchise history — they’ve been effective offensively. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has cut down his turnovers (he has five after averaging 20 per season over his first three seasons), and they’re averaging 5.8 yards per play, which would be the best mark in franchise history. The biggest issue is their slow starts (just 20 points scored in the first quarter), which might not hurt them this week because the Eagles are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t scored in the first quarter. — Mike DiRocco

Eagles storyline to watch: Quarterback Jalen Hurts has become much more efficient in recent weeks. After turning the ball over seven times over the Eagles’ first four games — second most in the league at the time — he has zero giveaways in the past three games. Philadelphia is 3-0 over that stretch with a points-per-game differential of plus-16.3, compared to minus-2.5 during its 2-2 start. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: Hurts has had five rushing touchdowns in the past two games, the most by any quarterback in a two-game span since 1951. Since 1950, the most rushing touchdowns by a passer over a three-game span is six (Cam Newton in 2011 and Johnny Lujack in 1950).

Bold prediction: Eagles edge rusher Josh Sweat will record a pass rush win rate of 25% or higher. Sweat will face Walker Little, who replaced left tackle Cam Robinson (since traded) last week. Historically, Little has not been great. He has a career 82% pass block win rate at tackle, which is well below average. — Walder

Injuries: Jaguars | Eagles

Fantasy X factor: Jaguars tight end Evan Engram. Wide receiver Christian Kirk is out for the season because of a broken collarbone, and wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (chest) is day to day. That means Lawrence will likely lean on Engram. Last season, Engram averaged 10.2 targets, 8.3 receptions and 73.2 receiving yards per game when Kirk was sidelined for six games. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The last time the Jaguars closed as at least seven-point underdogs was the 2022 divisional playoffs against the Chiefs (plus-9.5). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Eagles 34, Jaguars 18
Moody’s pick: Eagles 33, Jaguars 20
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Jaguars 20
FPI prediction: PHI, 68.1% (by an average of 7.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: With Kirk out, which Jaguars WR will step up? … Former Eagles coach Pederson helped usher Sirianni in as Philly coach … QB Hurts jokes about his mismatched cleats during Eagles-Bengals

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4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: ARI -1.5 (44.5 O/U)

Bears storyline to watch: Coach Matt Eberflus was mum when asked whether cornerback Tyrique Stevenson would start against Arizona or be benched after his antics on the final play in Washington contributed to an 18-15 loss for the Bears. Eberflus said the second-year corner “has made a lot of plays for this group and for our defense and for our football team over the last couple of years, and he’s going to continue to do that.” Given the Bears are already dealing with injuries to Jaquan Brisker (concussion) and Kyler Gordon (hamstring), replacing another starter in the lineup might not be in the cards Sunday. — Courtney Cronin

Cardinals storyline to watch: The Cardinals have finally found some consistency. They’ve won two in a row for the first time since 2021 and have taken three out of four. If they could continue their run with a win Sunday, they’ll be in a prime position going into next week’s game against the Jets, which is their last before their bye week. — Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: The Bears have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to ESPN Analytics. After their next two games against Arizona and New England, they will play eight straight contests against teams with a current record of .500 or better.

Bold prediction: Bears tight end Cole Kmet will has 75-plus receiving yards. He’ll bounce back from his one-reception performance last week as Arizona allows targets to tight ends on 21% of dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Plus, Arizona struggles against the pass in general. — Walder

Injuries: Bears | Cardinals

Fantasy X factor: Cardinals running back James Conner. He’s in a great spot this week. Arizona’s offensive line has been impressive, ranking ninth in run block win rate, while the Bears are 22nd in run stop win rate (72.8%). Conner has averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is 10-16 ATS in his career as a favorite (6-12 ATS as home favorite). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 21, Bears 18
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 20, Bears 17
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 24, Bears 23
FPI prediction: CHI, 49.9% (by an average of 0.0 points)

Matchup must-reads: Bears stand by criticism but aim to keep it ‘in-house’ … How Cardinals’ McBride is ascending into a top-tier TE … Why Cardinals’ come-from-behind win vs. Dolphins might be needed spark

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4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DET -3.5 (48.5 O/U)

Lions storyline to watch: At 6-1, the Lions are off to their best start since 1956 with veteran quarterback Jared Goff competing at an MVP level. Detroit has won its past two games at Lambeau Field, and Goff has a rare opportunity to match former Packers star Aaron Rodgers’ NFL-record of six straight games with multiple passing touchdowns and a 70% completion rate. — Eric Woodyard

Packers storyline to watch: How much the Packers run the ball depends on whether it’s Jordan Love (groin) or Malik Willis at quarterback. In the two games that Willis started earlier this season while Love was out because of a knee injury, the Packers called designed runs on 68% of the snaps compared to 41% in Love’s six starts, according to ESPN Research. Either way, expect running back Josh Jacobs to be hard to tackle. He has the second-most rushing yards after contract in the NFL this season, behind only the Ravens’ Derrick Henry. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Goff has completed 83% of his passes over the past five games, which is the highest percentage during a five-game span in NFL history (minimum of 50 attempts).

Bold prediction: Jacobs will not catch a single pass. The Lions have allowed running back receptions on just 8% of opponent dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league. — Walder

Injuries: Lions | Packers

Fantasy X factor: Goff. He’s averaging 27.0 pass attempts and 17.2 fantasy points per game this season. Goff has been especially effective on the road, with 19.8 fantasy points per game. And with the Packers potentially missing corner Jaire Alexander (knee) and safety Evan Williams (hamstring), Goff is set up for success. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Packers are 22-8 ATS as underdogs under coach Matt LaFleur. They’re also 6-1 outright and ATS as home underdogs with him. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Lions 37, Packers 26
Moody’s pick: Packers 31, Lions 26
Walder’s pick: Lions 34, Packers 26
FPI prediction: DET, 59.7% (by an average of 4.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Lions’ offense is on an all-time run … For Packers to beat Lions, their offense must step up … Report: Prosecutors reviewing warrant request for Lions’ Williams

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4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: LAR -1.5 (48.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to watch: Running back Kyren Williams ranks second in the NFL with 10 scrimmage touchdowns this season. With two more touchdowns Sunday, Williams can become the fourth player in Rams history with 12 or more touchdowns through eight games of a season, according to ESPN Research. Williams has scored at least two touchdowns in a game twice this season. — Sarah Barshop

Seahawks storyline to watch: The Seahawks are “optimistic” — in coach Mike Macdonald’s words — that DK Metcalf will be back after missing last week’s game because of an MCL sprain. The star receiver’s absence versus Buffalo was evident in Seattle’s inability to generate an offensive play of longer than 20 yards for the first time since 2017. Rams cornerback and one-time Seahawk Ahkello Witherspoon got under Metcalf’s skin last season, which would add intrigue to that matchup. — Brady Henderson

Stat to know: Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith had zero passing touchdowns in Week 8. He has not had back-to-back starts without a passing touchdown since 2014 with the Jets.

Bold prediction: The Rams will hold their opponent to under 4.0 yards per carry for the second time this season. There’s a weak-on-weak matchup on the ground here with the Seahawks ranking 29th in EPA per designed carry and the Rams ranking 29th in EPA allowed per designed carry. Something has to give, and my guess is it breaks the Rams’ way. — Walder

Injuries: Rams | Seahawks

Fantasy X factor: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. He just put up a season-high 24.7 fantasy points against the Vikings in Week 8, with receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp as his top targets. This week’s matchup with Seattle stands out with one of the highest point totals on the slate. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS this season, while the Rams are 2-5 ATS. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Seahawks 28, Rams 24
Moody’s pick: Rams 26, Seahawks 23
Walder’s pick: Rams 20, Seahawks 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 50.3% (by an average of 0.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rams’ Kupp scores in return; McVay expects WR to stay … Who will win the NFC West? It’s a four-team race

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8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: MIN -5 (46.5 O/U)

Colts storyline to watch: With QB Joe Flacco set to take over, look for an interesting subplot in how he deals with the Vikings’ heavy blitz package. Minnesota blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL this season (42%), but Flacco leads all QBs since 2023 in touchdowns per pass attempt (13.3%) and yards per completion (14.8) when blitzed. Flacco also has the fourth-lowest sack rate (5.1%) against the blitz. — Stephen Holder

Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings are expected to get tight end T.J. Hockenson back on the field now that he has recovered from a torn ACL and MCL in his right knee. That will likely prompt a redistribution of targets among the team’s pass-catchers, a shift that should benefit the offense even if it ultimately takes a few targets away from wide receiver Justin Jefferson. To this point, Jefferson has 34.9% of quarterback Sam Darnold’s targets, the second-highest percentage by any player through seven games in the past 10 seasons. — Kevin Seifert

Stat to know: ESPN Analytics gives Indianapolis a 64% chance to make the playoffs with Flacco, compared to a 46% chance with Richardson.

Bold prediction: Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell will record 50-plus receiving yards for the first time. With Flacco under center, the offense will likely be more reliable. Mitchell hasn’t produced big numbers yet, but there are good signs. He ranks fourth in open score with an 81. — Walder

Injuries: Colts | Vikings

Fantasy X factor: Colts wide receiver Josh Downs. With Flacco stepping in, the Colts’ passing game is trending up. His accuracy will benefit the Colts’ receivers. Downs and Flacco have already shown strong chemistry, and the receiver has cleared 16 fantasy points in four of his past five games. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings are 0-2 outright and ATS in their past two games (both as favorites). They started the year 5-0 outright and ATS. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Colts 28, Vikings 26
Moody’s pick: Vikings 31, Colts 24
Walder’s pick: Vikings 29, Colts 14
FPI prediction: MIN, 53.9% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Going to Flacco over Richardson helps Colts win now, coach says … Vikings hope Hockenson’s return will open up offense … Win-now Colts bench QB Richardson for Flacco

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8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: KC -8.5 (45.5 O/U)

Buccaneers storyline to watch: Without wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, quarterback Baker Mayfield leaned heavily on tight end Cade Otton last week. The Bucs will have to do it again, with seemingly the only real hole in the Chiefs’ defense being that they’re giving up an average of 80.86 yards to opposing tight ends — the most of any team in the league. Does “National Tight Ends Day” carry over for another week? — Jenna Laine

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs have held five of their seven opponents under their season average in scoring, including two in the NFL’s top 10 in points. But Mayfield and the Bucs, fourth in scoring at more than 29 points per game, present Kansas City’s biggest challenge. The Chiefs had their most productive pass-rushing game of the season last week against the Raiders with five sacks, and they added edge rusher Joshua Uche in a trade with the Patriots this week. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: The Buccaneers are allowing 26.6 points (28th in the NFL) and 387 total yards (30th) per game.

Bold prediction: The Chiefs will allow no more than one touchdown to the Bucs. I have a hard time seeing Tampa Bay’s offense succeed without Evans and Godwin. Its depth receivers will have to beat press coverage, but the Chiefs do that more than any other team in the league at outside corner. — Walder

Injuries: Buccaneers | Chiefs

Fantasy X factor: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He finished with a season-high 18.1 fantasy points against the Raiders in Week 8. No defense this season allows more fantasy points per game than the Buccaneers. I believe Mahomes can keep his momentum going against Tampa Bay. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Mahomes is 22-28 ATS in his career when laying at least seven points (0-2 ATS this season). Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 27, Chiefs 24
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 28, Buccaneers 20
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 13
FPI prediction: KC, 63.0% (by an average of 5.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Godwin says playoff return ‘best-case scenario’ … Why the Chiefs are the new Patriots