Red Bull arrived at last year’s Miami Grand Prix in a strong position. They’d swept the opening four rounds of the season and only failed to fill the top two places once.
In the second year under F1’s new technical regulations it was clear Red Bull’s design team, headed by chief technical officer Adrian Newey, had sussed its intricacies far better than any of their rivals had. Prior to the Miami race, Red Bull let it be known Newey’s contract had been renewed.
Max Verstappen, who was about to embark on a record-breaking run of 10 consecutive grand prix wins, reiterated his commitment to the team ahead of the race weekend, while stressing the importance of continuity among their championship-winning staff.
“Nothing will influence anything to ’28 because I have a contract,” he said. “But I’m very happy, of course, that Adrian stays.
“But that goes for everyone in the team, right. When you’re doing really well, you want to try and keep that whole group together, and that’s, of course, also the target for the team, for the future.”
However the picture has changed drastically in the year-and-a-half since then. Red Bull are no longer the competitive force they once were and several high-profile names have confirmed their departures. Inevitably, many are wondering whether the two things are related and, above all, whether their three-times champion driver might be the next to leave.
Red Bull’s downturn in form has made Verstappen’s championship lead, which once seemed almost unassailable, look more vulnerable. He’s still the overwhelming favourite to clinch this year’s crown, but a stumble over the final rounds could make the threat from Lando Norris much more serious.
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But while Red Bull showed they have begun solving their problems with Verstappen’s run to second place in Singapore, the brain drain at the team may concern the driver more. The loss of Newey to Aston Martin inevitably made big headlines, but he is one of several significant figures who has left or will do soon. Newey is Aston Martin’s second major hiring from Red Bull after Dan Fallows, who was their chief engineer for aerodynamics, and switched teams in 2022.
McLaren, who passed Red Bull for the lead of the constructors’ championship two races ago, have also made major signings from the world champions. Less than a month after that Miami race, McLaren announced it had hired Red Bull’s chief engineering officer Rob Marshall. He will be joined by McLaren’s latest hiring, Red Bull’s chief strategist Will Courtenay, who will become their sporting director.
The same role at Red Bull is currently held by Jonathan Wheatley. He will relinquish the position at the end of the year and join Sauber as its team principal, ahead of its rebranding as Audi.
How well Red Bull handles the combined effect of these departures remains to be seen. But their rivals believe it may take more than one season for the consequences to become apparent.
“I think the turmoil will have more of the mid-to-longer term impact,” McLaren Racing CEO Zak Brown told media including RaceFans earlier this year. “Adrian Newey: This car was done last year. What they’re racing now was done when everything was fine.
“I think it’s more of ’26 when you’ve got a new engine coming, what’s going on with the driver front, I think that’s where you potentially are going to see the lack of stability that appears to be there, maybe come through a little bit.”
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Brown, speaking when Red Bull had won seven of the first 11 rounds this year, added: “Winning holds things together and if that becomes more of a challenge for them, I think that’s where you might see some more fractures in various relationships.”
Red Bull haven’t done any more winning since Brown spoke those words. Verstappen has urged them to find more performance from their car, without which he faces an increasingly tense wait to clinch his fourth consecutive world championship. Beyond that, does he still believe Red Bull offers the strongest chance for him to win further titles?
Until his breakthrough championship triumph in 2021, Verstappen and Red Bull looked a force to be reckoned with: Tactically sharp, invariably poised to snatch a win when their rivals slipped up. Once they got their hands on a power unit which put them on terms with the front-runners they went toe-to-toe with Mercedes for the championship. And from 2022, as they out-developed their rivals since 2022, they were unstoppable until this year.
Verstappen’s diagnosis of what is behind Red Bull’s slump will be crucial to what he does next. Yes, on paper he is committed to the team until 2028, but this is F1. Last year Mercedes told everyone Lewis Hamilton would drive for them next year and look where he’s going. Not for nothing has Mercedes’ team principal Toto Wolff been courting Verstappen so publicly.
As Verstappen stated in Miami last year, continuity is crucial to sustaining a winning team. But Red Bull already face some degree of internal disruption, and Verstappen may decide that as he is already having to adjust to some internal change, he may as well do so at another team which offers a more realistic chance of success.
Does Verstappen suspect, like Brown, that Red Bull are yet to feel the full impact of the staff departures? Is he convinced Red Bull’s in-house, Ford-assisted power unit project will be immediately more competitive than a Mercedes or the Honda he has won so many races with? These are the questions which will decide where his future lies.
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