Over the last four grands prix before the summer break Max Verstappen finished fifth, second, fifth again and fourth. An average finish of fourth place doesn’t usually deliver world championships.
Those missed points were pocketed by his rivals. One out-scored Verstappen by 27 over that period, another by 23. Yet the prospect the 2024 championship will slip out of his grasp still looks thin.
The three-times world champion built himself a useful lead over the first 10 rounds of the season, seven of which he won, despite a technical failure ending his race early in Australia. He held a 69-point lead in the standings after his seventh win of the season in Spain.
Significantly, despite the tough run he has endured since then, Verstappen has increased his lead at the top of the standings to 78 points during that time. In a competitive field, no one has yet emerged as consistently Verstappen’s clearest threat.
Will that happen when the final 10 races of the season begin this weekend? Is it already too late for anyone to seriously consider taking the fight to Verstappen? And who poses the most realistic threat?
Lando Norris
78 points behind, last four results: 20th, 3rd, 2nd, 5th
Despite being Verstappen’s closest rival in the championship, Norris has only out-scored the points leader in three rounds so far this year, one of which was Australia. The McLaren has been a strong match for the Red Bull on pace since Norris received the team’s last major upgrade in Miami, but he admits he has made too many mistakes since then.
Had it not been for his latest error, Norris would have gone into the summer break in a much more positive position. The Belgian Grand Prix was an open goal for him as far as the championship was concerned: Verstappen was confined to 11th on the grid by a penalty, while Norris lined up fourth. But an unnecessary touch of the gravel trap at the exit of the first corner brought the Red Bull within range, and Verstappen led him home again. Norris started one place behind the eventual winner, Lewis Hamilton, making his missed opportunity all the more galling.
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No doubt Norris has borne the inevitable brunt of being the focus of Verstappen’s attention at times, as in Austria, and that has limited his points-scoring at times. Nor is there doubt he and his car are potentially quick enough to rival Verstappen. But the accumulation of minor errors – some by the driver, some by his team – must not continue in the second half of the year if he’s to have any chance of capitalising on the opportunity he has.
Charles Leclerc
100 points behind, last four results: 11th, 14th, 4th, 3rd
Leclerc’s win in Monaco should have been the moment which catapulted him into championship contention. He left his home race just 31 points behind Verstappen, and in the following races Red Bull started to feel real pressure from their rivals.
But those rivals weren’t Ferrari, they were McLaren and Mercedes. Ferrari lost their way with their SF-24 and poor luck aggravated Leclerc’s situation.
At Spa, Leclerc indicated the team is getting back on track, claiming pole position and inheriting the final podium position when George Russell was disqualified. The role he might play in the coming rounds is therefore intriguing. The Ferrari doesn’t look quick enough to be a regular contender, but expect Leclerc to be in the hunt, potentially causing headaches for Verstappen or the other contenders, depending on tracks, conditions and circumstances.
Oscar Piastri
110 points behind, last four results: 2nd, 4th, 1st, 2nd
Increasingly impressive second-year racer Oscar Piastri is Verstappen’s closest rival in the championship who has out-scored him over the last four grands prix. Had it not been for McLaren’s disastrous strategy call at Silverstone he likely would have finished ahead of the Red Bull driver every time, and he would have taken more from the Red Bull driver than the 23 points he claimed in this time.
Piastri scored his first victory in Hungary after team mate Norris was told to let him by into the lead. McLaren ordered this to restore the running order of their two drivers after a late pit stop moved Norris ahead.
The team was criticised by some who felt they should have prioritised Norris as their leading points-scorer. But at the rate he’s going it might not be long before Piastri overhauls him: There’s just 32 points between them. Given their recent performances, Piastri catching Norris looks a safer bet than Norris catching Verstappen. Especially if Piastri repeats the stronger form he showed over the second half of last season.
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Carlos Sainz Jnr
115 points behind, last four results: 3rd, 5th, 6th, 6th
For Sainz, read Leclerc, except he is slightly further behind in the championship, a difference more than accounted for by his enforced absence from the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix. There hasn’t been much to choose between them in results so far this year.
Lewis Hamilton
127 points behind, last four results: 4th, 1st, 3rd, 1st
Hamilton may have out-scored Verstappen by more than anyone else recently, but his poor start to the season has left him a long way out of contention. Although he’s taken 27 points out of Verstappen over the last four grands prix, he’s 127 behind, the legacy of failing to finish any of the first eight races inside the top five.
Mercedes may well be in the process of overhauling McLaren and Red Bull to have the outright fastest car in Formula 1 now they’ve made their W15 work. Hamilton has won two of the last three races, but even if that proves the shape of things to come he will need Verstappen’s absence from the podium to continue until the end of the year to have a realistic shot at the championship. Then there’s the added complication of team mate Russell, who’s proven more than capable of beating Hamilton on several occasions already, and can blame some severe misfortune for having less than half of Verstappen’s tally at this stage.
Who will be Verstappen’s closest rival?
Although Verstappen has a healthy lead in the championship – 78 points with XXX available over the next 10 rounds – the conditions exist for someone to emerge as a threat to him. Red Bull have slipped from the strong position they started the season in and their rivals should continue to make inroads as the Aerodynamic Testing Regulations tips the balance in their favour.
If Red Bull turn up to the remaining races not as the fastest team but second, third or event fourth, Verstappen is going to need every point he can lay his hands on. But that’s obviously a significant ‘if’.
Whether or not that’s likely to happen should become clear in the next four races. Having got his engine penalty out of the way at Spa, Verstappen needs a return to ‘business as usual’ at Zandvoort and Monza. But will McLaren and Mercedes be too strong for them? A pair of street races follow including Singapore – will that prove Red Bull’s bogey track as it did last year?
On paper, Norris should be the driver best-placed to tackle Verstappen. But his recent performances have given cause to doubt whether he can consistently perform at the required level. There is surely more to come from his highly-rated team mate, who is only halfway through his second season. Mercedes, who have won three of the last four rounds, may well have many more victories ahead of them, but it’s unrealistic to imagine Hamilton could overturn a deficit of more than five wins in 10 races without some disaster befalling Verstappen.
The Red Bull driver also enters the final races knowing he doesn’t need to worry about any competition from his team mate. Indeed, Sergio Perez served a useful function for Verstappen at Spa, pitting at a time which proved disadvantageous to Norris.
That’s one more reason why the chances seem slim that we might see a championship fight develop over the remaining races. If it’s going to happen, the next four rounds will tell us.
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