Who should Mercedes replace Hamilton with… and should Verstappen switch from Red Bull? · RaceFans

It is perhaps the most coveted openly available seat in Formula 1 for several seasons – the one that will be vacated by Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes when he departs for Ferrari at the end of 2024.

Already an appealing seat when Hamilton’s move was first announced, it has perhaps only become more valuable as the season has progressed and the multiple world champions have gradually built themselves back up to being regular race winners again.

With Haas confirming Esteban Ocon will join them for 2025, there are now five drivers on the grid who do not currently have a seat for next season confirmed: Valtteri Bottas, Kevin Magnussen, Daniel Ricciardo, Logan Sargeant and Zhou Guanyu. While all of them are potential options, there are also plenty of other drivers who are not on the current grid who could well be more attractive.

Mercedes will be hoping – if not expecting – to be a contender for both championship titles into 2025 and certainly beyond. That means whoever they pick will require the skill and mental toughness to compete against the best the sport has to offer at the front of the field. Against the likes of Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren and even against George Russell in the second Mercedes car.

Although team principal Toto Wolff’s words and actions over the year so far suggest that there is one particular driver who appears to be the clear favourite for the seat, it’s time to have your say on who you would offer the spare Mercedes seat to in 2025. But first, a quick look at all the potential options…

The established drivers

Three of the most experienced drivers on the current grid are yet to secure a seat for 2025. Of those, Bottas seems to be the most obvious fit, having raced with Mercedes for five consecutive seasons between 2017 and 2021, helping them to the constructors’ championship title every time. Although not on the same level as Hamilton, Bottas showed he was more than capable of beating the best in the field on his day – even if the pressure of being a Mercedes factory driver appeared to take its toll over time.

Ricciardo is the only other grand prix winner in the field who is currently yet to have his future secured. Although he would also bring a wealth of experience of fighting at the front – having held his own against no lesser a team mate than Max Verstappen in his Red Bull years. But Ricciardo has struggled in recent years to match that high level he attained around a decade ago and while he has not convinced Red Bull to replace Sergio Perez with him, yet, it’s unlikely Mercedes would consider him.

Magnussen is the final experienced driver, but given how he has been generally outperformed by team mate Nico Hulkenberg at Haas during their time together, that is hardly a great advertisement for any team to decide to bring him on board for 2025 – let alone a team like Mercedes. That leaves the two youngest drivers in Zhou and Sargeant, but neither are demonstrating particularly outstanding qualities this season that would make them seem worthy of such a seat.

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Keeping in the factory

Like all of their main rivals, Mercedes has a pipeline of talent that it nurtures through junior formulae. But there are also some options available to them who already provide services at an F1 level.

Last year’s F2 runner-up Frederik Vesti has been a Mercedes junior for several years and is one of the team’s two reserve drivers. Vesti has already taken part in Friday practice sessions for the team as well as the post-season young drivers test in 2022 and continues to work within the team alongside his endurance racing exploits. Mercedes also have a second reserve in the form of Mick Schumacher, who has two seasons’ worth of experience as a racer with Haas – although the second was rather tumultuous, to say the least.

But Mercedes also have an incredibly promising young talent racing in the current Formula 2 series: 17-year-old Andrea Kimi Antonelli. Hailed as potentially being a generational young talent to rival that of Hamilton himself, Antonelli has won several single-seater titles over just a handful of years out of karting. Although his F2 season has proven challenging with Prema, Antonelli has taken two race wins in the last three rounds to quieten any growing critics of him.

Aside from these three young drivers, there are two other former Mercedes affiliates who might be worth a consideration. Nyck de Vries is also an experienced driver who Mercedes are very much familiar with. While the 2021 Formula E world champion and 2019 Formula 2 champion has a strong resume, his half-season with AlphaTauri in 2023 did not go the way he or Red Bull had hoped. Hardly the best argument to be given a Mercedes factory drive.

The second alternative is Paul Aron. The driver who has led the F2 standings in his rookie campaign this year for Hitech, Aron is not currently affiliated with an F1 team – but used to be a part of the Mercedes junior programme until the end of last season. Although he has yet to win a race this year, Aron has impressed many with what he has achieved in his first season in the series, especially against very highly rated opposition.

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Other options

There are two other potential options who vary rather dramatically in experience as well as plausibility.

The first being reigning F2 champion Theo Pourchaire. While a Sauber affiliated driver, Pourchaire believes he deserves and opportunity to race in Formula 1 – although Hamilton’s Mercedes seat might just be a bit much to ask. When given the chance to race in IndyCar, however, he has put in a good showing for McLaren this season.

The final option seems the most unlikely, but would be the most seismic of all if it were to happen: Max Verstappen.

While Verstappen is currently under what is likely the most lucrative driver contract in Formula 1 history, keeping him at Red Bull until 2028 – in theory – there have been plenty of signs that Wolff would love nothing more than to convince the reigning triple world champion to join his team. Especially after Wolff lost out on securing Verstappen as a Mercedes junior to Red Bull during his formative years.

The obvious question to ask is ‘why would Verstappen give up what he has at Red Bull for Mercedes?’. Especially as Red Bull have provided him with three championship winning cars and he will likely become a four-time champion this year. However, Red Bull has been undergoing some turbulent times behind the scenes with key technical staff departing and team principal Christian Horner facing allegations about his conduct, which he denies, that have been investigated and dismissed by Red Bull.

As much as Verstappen has reiterated his commitment to the Milton Keynes team, there are reports that he has exit clauses in his contract should certain circumstances come to pass. And beyond 2025, the new power units that will be introduced in 2026 may make Mercedes a more attractive option than Red Bull as it embarks on producing its first power unit designed in-house with the support of Ford.

Leaving Red Bull would certainly be a gamble, no matter how strong Mercedes have been over the last decade. But is the opportunity to replace Hamilton one that even the three-times world champion should jump at?

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You say

Which driver currently unconfirmed for 2025 would you choose to fill Hamilton’s seat? Have your say in this weekend’s poll.

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But what should Verstappen do? Would it be better to stay where he is and to keep faith in Red Bull into the major regulations changes for 2026, or should he take a gamble and try to escape his Red Bull contract to fill Hamilton’s seat?

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