Lately, our personal Alex Kozora dove into the No. 1 Flaw With Russell Wilson. The information matched his emotions when watching the movie: Wilson struggled extra going through zone than man protection. Defenses picked up on this, which was a giant issue within the Steelers’ offense wanting worse to finish the season.
The purpose at present is to additional our findings extra visually since an image can inform a thousand phrases and examine how Steelers QBs stacked up throughout the league within the 2024 common season.
I’ll begin through the use of two extraordinarily invaluable knowledge factors: Adjusted Internet Yards Per Cross Try (ANY/A) and Anticipated Factors Added Per Dropback (EPA) going through zone protection:
Right here, we see that Wilson was under common in each key stats that predict success in opposition to zone protection. Within the common season, his 5.6 ANY/A tied for twenty fourth out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks, and -0.05 EPA landed twenty ninth. Contemplating the final word purpose is placing factors on the scoreboard and each stats accounting for that, that is unlucky territory that crippled the passing sport in opposition to sensible and robust groups within the painful shedding streak to shut 2024.
Many speculate that QB Justin Fields is extra more likely to resign with Pittsburgh. Although he began simply six video games in the beginning of 2024, evaluating his outcomes to Wilson and the remainder of the NFL is fascinating. Fields had an eerily comparable EPA, rating one spot larger than Wilson when going through zone protection, together with a extra notable edge and solely above-average mark of the 2 in ANY/A at 6.3 (nineteenth).
It’s not an earth-shattering edge for Fields, nevertheless it’s fascinating to be taught. To place their seasons going through zone protection into extra context, one quarterback “breaks” the visible with a ten.6 ANY/A and 0.37 EPA – Raven Lamar Jackson. My ANY/A articles already highlighted Baltimore main the NFL in offensive ANY/A throughout the board, and Jackson was essentially the most profitable when going through zone protection considerably.
This included the Steelers’ unlucky Wild Card loss to Jackson and firm, who performed a variety of zone en path to Pittsburgh’s defeat. So, not solely was zone protection a problem for Wilson, however he confronted it extra typically within the four-straight losses, and the Steelers’ protection additionally had points limiting the opposition within the state of affairs.
Let’s examine the findings to man protection with the identical knowledge factors:
From the premise, you knew Wilson was a stronger QB when going through man protection. Though there was a smaller pattern dimension, we additionally see this was true for Fields, with each touchdown on the highest proper and the extra fascinating spectrum of this visible. Wilson clearly had the stronger 7.9 ANY/A, rating eighth finest within the NFL, and a 0.02 EPA (thirteenth).
Recalling these numbers have been a lot worse at 5.6 and -0.05 going through zone, it’s clear the place Wilson is extra snug. He’s a moonball or brief space passer and takes his pictures when the protection provides him man protection largely. So, being stronger in opposition to man was anticipated, however this a lot of a diffusion in high quality merely received’t get it carried out in opposition to the NFL’s finest.
How real looking is it to anticipate that to vary for Wilson at this stage of his profession? By no means say by no means, however seemingly not significantly. Fields has youth on his facet, with a better probability to boost his ceiling. Additionally, Pittsburgh ran a way more conservative offense in his six video games. If he have been to grow to be the starter in 2025, there’s at the very least an encouraging potential for what he might develop into.
This 12 months, Fields had the higher mark in EPA (0.08), which ranked tenth impressively. ANY/A was a special story, although, solely barely above the imply, with a 6.0 ANY/A that ranked twentieth. For extra context to Pittsburgh’s numbers, the highest ANY/A QB in opposition to man protection in 2024 was Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts (9.8), who additionally handed Pittsburgh a loss amidst the painful shedding streak and was second to solely Detroit’s Jared Goff’s 0.4 EPA.
Evaluating Jackson’s prime zone protection stats, I needed to offer his man numbers: 7.1 ANY/A (eleventh), -0.005 EPA (nineteenth). So, he’s nonetheless an above-average quarterback, however he was clearly an elite zone passer like no different in 2024, together with Pittsburgh’s room.
To shut, listed below are another vital stats Kozora and I checked out for the research, with league-wide ranks for each Wilson and Fields. Bolded numbers are for the QB that ranked stronger:
There’s extra context to Wilson clearly having extra success vs. man protection, together with prime ten ranks in TD price, ANY/A, QBR, and common throw depth. Fields had some spectacular marks, too, prime ten in INT price and EPA and above-average on-target and completion charges that topped Wilson. Fields did have poor common throw depth and TD price on the undesirable spectrum in comparison with Wilson.
Zone outcomes each QBs wanted to be higher. However seeing Fields have the sting on Wilson within the 7-of-8 stats we checked out may be very telling. Wilson did have top-10 marks in on-target and interception charges however was at to below-average in any other case. Fields solely had one top-ten mark, interception price, with sturdy outcomes no matter protection. Extra middling elsewhere, although.
So, whoever the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback is in 2025, they may hopefully fare significantly better in opposition to zone protection.
