Getting into the 2025 draft cycle, most scouts and draft retailers thought of Cooper Flagg the clear high prospect. Many scouts (myself included) take into account Flagg a particular prospect, able to growing into an NBA celebrity.
Another prospects, notably Dylan Harper, have crept in direction of the dialog. However I’d argue that Flagg’s begin to the season solely provides confidence to his celebrity projection. Let’s talk about three causes Flagg remains to be the clear high prospect within the 2025 NBA Draft and among the finest prospects on the planet.
Flagg’s excessive utilization is promising for on-ball creation potential
Detractors typically cite Flagg’s poor effectivity; he’s posting a frigid 50.5% true capturing to this point. Context right here is crucial, as Flagg’s age (he turns 18 on December twenty first), top and offensive load all affect this quantity. He’s harbored an infinite 30.4% utilization fee, tied with Dylan Harper for the second-highest of any high-major freshman this season (Jeremiah Fears ranks first).
The overwhelming majority of high-usage school primaries are guards. Flagg represents a transparent outlier right here given his measurement at 6’9. He joins Michael Beasley, DeMarcus Cousins and Vernon Carey Jr as the one 6’9 or taller freshmen since 2008 with utilization charges above 30%. Critically, Flagg is a far superior passing prospect to all three of these gamers.
He’s at all times handed the ball at a excessive degree, flashing NBA-quality traits courting again to highschool. That playmaking verve translated to the school degree instantly, mirrored in his passing numbers — 23.4% help fee, 7.0 assists per 100 possessions and a 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio.
His playmaking meshing with the immense utilization helps us think about a path for Flagg to command the ball ultimately on the NBA degree. Since 2008, the one different freshmen taller than 6’8 to publish above 20% help fee, 1.0 assist-to-turnover ratio and a 25% utilization fee had been Ben Simmons and Scottie Barnes. That mixture of excessive offensive duty at a younger age, passing quantity and turnover avoidance is extraordinarily worthwhile.
Flagg has proven the flexibility to create downhill benefits together with his velocity, measurement and explosion, even when his ball management and dribble counters nonetheless want enchancment. That’s the case for nearly all 17-year-old wings, although. Jon Scheyer has requested Flagg to hold his staff’s offense in opposition to among the greatest groups in school basketball and he’s answered the bell, all issues thought of.
His capturing projection is powerful
Projecting capturing to the NBA degree is without doubt one of the most difficult elements of scouting. Many prospects, particularly freshmen, don’t have anything near a steady 3-point capturing pattern. Cooper Flagg has made 24.4% of his threes to this point, however that’s on simply 41 makes an attempt. If, for instance, 5 of these misses went in, Flagg’s 3-point share would spike to 36.6%.
Including his last highschool and AAU season to Flagg’s school begin paints a clearer image of his capturing capability — 33.2% (83-250) on all 3-pointers with comparable effectivity off the dribble and off the catch. Which may not seem stellar, however most youngsters, particularly ones as tall as Flagg, aren’t environment friendly shooters. Anthony Edwards, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Good, Buddy Hield, Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Maxey all shot beneath 30% from past the arc as school freshmen.
Flagg’s capturing indicators, notably his free throw share and quantity, are strong. He’s capturing 76.3% (45-59) from the road this yr. Including that to his highschool and EYBL free-throw capturing, we arrive at 83.3% (299-359). He’s taking 7.1 3-point makes an attempt per 100 possessions.
I’d like to see him enhance that quantity to eight.0 or 9.0 to really feel much more assured in his capturing projection given the worth of quantity. His shot variety, flashing off-dribble and off-movement capturing, add to Flagg’s encouraging capturing projection. Flagg growing right into a high-level shooter would clear and widen his star paths.
He’s an elite defensive prospect
Mainstream scouting evaluation has by no means valued protection as a lot as I really feel they need to. Measuring and evaluating protection could be difficult, particularly as in comparison with offense, given the relative lack of defensive statistics. Flagg’s steal and block numbers, although, are stellar, posting a 5.1% block fee and a 3.1% steal fee up to now. The one different freshmen since 2008 to match these numbers had been Zion Williamson, Nerlens Noel, Tari Eason and Andre Roberson.
cooper flagg’s 5.1% block fee and three.1% steal fee up to now makes him one in all 5 drafted freshmen since 2008 to fulfill these benchmarks
the ridiculous vary, versatility and shot blocking have instantly translated to excessive degree ball pic.twitter.com/xZN96mSwNH
— ben pfeifer (@bjpf_) December 18, 2024
Flagg covers monumental areas of floor as a weak-side shot blocker and jumps passing lanes for simple transition probabilities. His on-ball protection has been stellar, sliding and mirroring even smaller gamers together with his lateral quickness and measurement. He nonetheless profiles because the type of defensive prospect who can problem for Defensive Participant of the Yr Trophies in due time.
That’s an extremely worthwhile commodity, one thing NBA groups can undervalue at instances. Even with out discussing his offensive potential, Flagg’s protection raises his flooring to a ridiculously excessive baseline.